Anfernee Simons has demolished his points totals with an 8-2 over record across his last 10 games, averaging 25.8 points against a 21.1 line for a massive +4.7 differential. This 80% over rate with +52.7% ROI represents one of the strongest scoring trends in the league right now.
Expert Analysis
Simons has transformed into Portland's primary offensive engine, and the betting market hasn't caught up to his expanded role. The 4.7-point differential between his average (25.8) and typical line (21.1) reveals a systematic undervaluation that's persisted across 10 games. This isn't random variance—it's structural change. Portland's injuries and roster turnover have forced Simons into a true number-one scoring role, elevating his usage rate and shot attempts significantly. The four-game over streak demonstrates the consistency of this elevated production, not just occasional explosions. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Simons' shooting efficiency hasn't cratered despite increased volume, suggesting sustainable production rather than unsustainable hot shooting. The 80% over rate across a meaningful 10-game sample indicates books are slow to adjust to his new reality. However, regression risk exists if Portland gets healthier or if the market finally corrects these consistently low lines. The biggest red flag would be a significant role reduction, but Portland's competitive struggles suggest they'll continue leaning heavily on Simons' scoring ability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.7-point average differential and 80% over rate represent clear market inefficiency, but the sample size demands caution. Target games where Portland faces pace-up spots or depleted opponents that could push Simons into another 25+ point performance. Main risk is line correction if books finally adjust to his elevated role.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 20.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 21.5 | 30.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 32.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 20.5 | 34.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-07 | OPP | 22.5 | 14.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-05 | OPP | 20.5 | 30.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 21.5 | 27.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 21.5 | 28.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 26.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-10 | OPP | 20.5 | 17.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Points prop record last 10 games?
Simons has gone over his points total in 8 of his last 10 games (8-2 record), hitting 80% of overs with a +52.7% ROI. He's averaging 25.8 points against a typical 21.1 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Points last 10 games?
Lean over on Simons points props. The 4.7-point average differential and 80% over rate indicate consistent market undervaluation, though be selective given the strong trend may face line corrections.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Points last 10 games?
Simons is averaging 25.8 points over his last 10 games compared to his typical 21.1 line, creating a massive +4.7 differential that represents significant market inefficiency in the over direction.
How reliable is this trend?
Target pace-up games or matchups against depleted defenses where Simons can exceed 25+ points. Avoid back-to-backs or games where Portland might rest players if competitive situation changes significantly.