Anfernee Simons presents a dead-even proposition at home with a 48.1% over rate and minimal 0.1-point edge above the 22.5 line. The negative ROI on overs (-8.1%) suggests the market has overadjusted, creating potential under value despite his current four-game over streak.
Expert Analysis
Simons' home scoring profile reveals a player caught between market expectations and actual production. His 22.59 average sits barely above the standard 22.5 line, indicating oddsmakers have found his true range. The concerning -8.1% ROI on overs suggests bettors consistently overvalue his home scoring, likely influenced by the perception that guards should excel in familiar surroundings. However, Simons' home performance lacks the explosive variance that creates profitable over opportunities. His relatively balanced 13-14 over/under split indicates neither consistent ceiling games nor floor performances dominate his home slate. The current four-game over streak represents his season-long peak, matching his longest under streak, suggesting these runs are more statistical noise than meaningful patterns. Without pace, usage, or matchup advantages clearly favoring home games, Simons appears to be a volume scorer whose output remains fairly consistent regardless of venue. The slight under edge in ROI (-1.0% vs -8.1%) indicates the market may be systematically overpricing his home ceiling while properly valuing his floor.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market appears to overvalue Simons' home scoring ability, evidenced by the poor -8.1% ROI on overs despite a near-even record. His minimal 0.1-point edge above the line suggests limited upside, while the superior under ROI indicates better long-term value. Target games where the line reaches 23.0 or higher, as his true home average suggests consistent under value at inflated numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 21.5 | 30.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-09 | OPP | 20.5 | 34.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-06 | OPP | 19.5 | 30.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-04 | OPP | 19.5 | 22.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 18.5 | 14.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 19.5 | 13.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 20.5 | 28.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-13 | OPP | 17.5 | 30.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-01 | OPP | 20.5 | 9.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 21.5 | 3.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 23.5 | 14.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 24.5 | 36.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 22.5 | 17.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 27.5 | 23.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 21.5 | 26.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Anfernee Simons's Points prop record home games?
Simons has gone over his points total in 13 of 27 home games (48.1%) with a 13-14-0 record. His home scoring average of 22.59 barely exceeds the typical 22.5 line by just 0.1 points.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Anfernee Simons Points home games?
Lean under on Simons' home points props. The -8.1% ROI on overs suggests the market consistently overprices his home scoring, while unders show better value at -1.0% ROI despite the near-even record.
What's Anfernee Simons's average Points home games?
Simons averages 22.59 points in home games, just 0.1 points above the standard 22.5 line. This minimal edge indicates his true scoring range aligns closely with market expectations, limiting profitable over opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Simons points unders when lines reach 23.0 or higher, as his 22.59 home average suggests consistent value. Avoid betting during his current over streak without clear matchup advantages favoring increased scoring.