Andrew Wiggins has hit the over on three-pointers made in just 46.2% of games (6-7-0 record), averaging 1.54 makes against a 1.27 line. Despite the positive differential, the -11.9% ROI on overs signals consistent overvaluation by the market. Lean under with medium conviction.
Expert Analysis
Andrew Wiggins presents a classic case of market inefficiency where his three-point volume appears systematically overpriced. The 1.54 average against a 1.27 line creates an appealing 0.3 differential, but the 46.2% over rate and brutal -11.9% ROI on overs tells the real story. Wiggins has always been a streaky shooter whose three-point attempts fluctuate dramatically based on game flow and his role within Miami's offensive hierarchy. The Heat's system often prioritizes ball movement and paint touches over volume three-point shooting, which limits Wiggins' ceiling nights. His current two-game over streak follows a pattern we've seen repeatedly - short bursts of three-point success followed by longer stretches of underwhelming volume. The longest under streak of five games demonstrates how quickly Wiggins can disappear from beyond the arc when Miami's offense flows through other players. Without consistent usage data or clear situational splits, we're left analyzing a player whose three-point production seems more dependent on random game script than predictable factors. The market appears to overvalue his shooting reputation while underweighting how Miami's pace and style naturally suppress his three-point attempts. This creates a sustainable edge for under bettors willing to fade the occasional hot streak.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 2.8% ROI on unders combined with Wiggins' 53.8% under rate suggests the market consistently overprices his three-point volume. Miami's system and pace naturally limit his attempts, making the 1.27 line consistently beatable. Main risk is his current two-game over streak extending, but the five-game under streak earlier this season shows how quickly he can cool off from deep.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Wiggins's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Andrew Wiggins has gone over his three-pointers made prop in 6 of 13 games (46.2%) with a 6-7-0 record. He's averaging 1.54 makes per game against a typical line of 1.27, creating a positive 0.3 differential despite the losing over record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Wiggins 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet under on Andrew Wiggins three-pointers made props. The 2.8% ROI on unders versus -11.9% on overs, combined with his 53.8% under rate, indicates the market consistently overprices his three-point volume in Miami's system.
What's Andrew Wiggins's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Andrew Wiggins averages 1.54 three-pointers made per game, which is 0.3 above the typical 1.27 line. However, this positive differential is misleading as he only hits the over 46.2% of the time, making under bets more profitable.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Wiggins three-point unders after his occasional hot streaks, as he's shown a pattern of short over runs followed by longer cold spells. His longest under streak was 5 games, demonstrating how quickly he can cool off.