Andrew Nembhard's three-point production at home presents a compelling over opportunity, hitting at 68.8% (11-5-0) with a +31.2% ROI. His 1.0 average significantly exceeds the typical 0.69 line, creating consistent value. This is a strong lean over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's home three-point dominance stems from Indiana's pace-heavy system and his expanded role as a secondary playmaker. The Pacers rank among the league's fastest teams, generating more possessions and consequently more three-point attempts for role players like Nembhard. At home, he benefits from familiar shooting backgrounds and crowd energy that elevates role player confidence. The 0.31 differential between his actual production and typical lines suggests books are undervaluing his increased usage in Indiana's offense. His 68.8% over rate across 16 games indicates this isn't variance but a systematic edge. The trend shows remarkable consistency with his longest under streak being just two games, suggesting he bounces back quickly from poor shooting nights. However, regression concerns exist given the small sample size and his career 33.8% three-point percentage. Books may eventually adjust lines higher, eroding this edge. The lack of split data limits deeper analysis, but his home court advantage appears genuine. Indiana's offensive system, which prioritizes ball movement and open looks, creates favorable conditions for Nembhard's three-point production to continue exceeding modest expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 68.8% hit rate and +0.31 production differential create legitimate value on Nembhard's home three-point props. His role in Indiana's fast-paced system generates consistent opportunities, while books appear slow to adjust lines upward. The main risk is regression to his career shooting percentage, but the systematic advantage of playing in the Pacers' offense at home outweighs variance concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
Compare Andrew Nembhard props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Andrew Nembhard has gone over his three-point prop in 11 of 16 home games (68.8%) with a 11-5-0 record. This exceptional over rate has generated a +31.2% ROI for over bettors while producing -40.3% losses for under backers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the over on Nembhard's three-point props at home. His 68.8% over rate and 0.31 average differential above typical lines create consistent value. The Pacers' fast pace and his expanded role make this a systematic edge worth exploiting.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Nembhard averages 1.0 three-pointers made in home games compared to the typical 0.69 line, creating a +0.31 differential. This significant gap between production and expectations is the foundation of his strong 68.8% over rate at home.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nembhard's three-point overs specifically in home games where this 68.8% trend exists. Focus on games where the Pacers are expected to play at their typical fast pace, as increased possessions directly benefit his three-point volume.