Andrew Nembhard's three-pointers made prop presents a compelling over opportunity with a 68.8% hit rate across 32 games. The Pacers guard consistently exceeds his 0.66 line, averaging 1.03 makes per game with an impressive +31.2% ROI on overs. This represents a clear market inefficiency worth exploiting.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a story of systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers who haven't adjusted to Nembhard's expanded role in Indiana's offense. His 1.03 average against a 0.66 line represents a massive 56% edge, suggesting books are pricing him based on outdated usage patterns or conservative projections. The 22-10 over record isn't just impressive—it's sustainable given the Pacers' pace-heavy system that generates numerous three-point opportunities. Indiana consistently ranks among the league's fastest teams, creating extra possessions that naturally inflate peripheral stats like three-pointers made. Nembhard's role as a secondary playmaker means he's often spotting up in transition or finding open looks as defenses collapse on Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. The eight-game over streak demonstrates this isn't random variance but reflects his actual usage. While regression is always possible, the sample size of 32 games provides statistical confidence. The main concern would be if Indiana significantly slows their pace or if Nembhard loses minutes, but neither appears imminent given his consistent role and the team's identity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 68.8% over rate and +0.4 average differential create a profitable long-term edge despite the modest 0.66 line. Indiana's fast pace and Nembhard's consistent role as a spot-up threat make this sustainable. The primary risk is potential line adjustment as books catch up to his actual production, so capitalize while the market remains behind.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Andrew Nembhard has hit the over on his three-pointers made prop in 22 of 32 games (68.8% rate) with a 22-10-0 record. He's averaging 1.03 makes per game against a typical 0.66 line, creating a +0.4 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard 3-Pointers Made all games?
Bet the over on Andrew Nembhard's three-pointers made props. The 68.8% over rate and +31.2% ROI demonstrate a clear market inefficiency. His 1.03 average significantly exceeds the 0.66 line, making overs the profitable long-term play.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Andrew Nembhard averages 1.03 three-pointers made per game across all situations. This represents a substantial +0.4 differential above his typical 0.66 prop line, indicating consistent overperformance relative to market expectations over 32 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Andrew Nembhard's three-pointers made props when Indiana plays at home or in up-tempo games. The Pacers' fast-paced system creates optimal conditions for his spot-up opportunities, especially when the game flow supports their transition offense.