Andrew Nembhard's steal props on one day of rest present a compelling over opportunity, hitting at a 66.7% clip across 18 games with a +0.3 average differential above the line. The 27.3% ROI on overs suggests meaningful value, making this a lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's elevated steal production on one day of rest reflects the sweet spot between fatigue and freshness that often benefits perimeter defenders. The 1.11 average against an 0.83 line represents a significant 33.7% edge, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted for this rest pattern. The 66.7% over rate across 18 games provides a robust sample size that spans nearly three months of action, indicating this isn't a small-sample fluke. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency - while Nembhard sits on a one-game under streak, his longest under streak was just two games, compared to a four-game over streak. This suggests the trend has staying power rather than being driven by a few outlier performances. The negative 36.4% ROI on unders reinforces that betting against this pattern has been costly. Nembhard's role as Indiana's primary backup point guard means he sees consistent minutes in defined situations, and one day of rest appears to optimize his defensive anticipation and lateral quickness needed for steal opportunities. The lack of split data prevents deeper context, but the core numbers paint a clear picture of a player who thrives defensively in this specific rest scenario.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 66.7% hit rate and +0.3 differential create legitimate value, particularly given the 27.3% ROI track record. Nembhard's defensive instincts appear sharpest with one day of rest, making overs the preferred play. The main risk is regression to the mean after 18 games of outperformance, but the consistency of the trend suggests continued value until books adjust the line.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Steals prop record 1 day rest?
Andrew Nembhard has gone over his steals prop 12 times and under 6 times on one day of rest, posting a 66.7% over rate across 18 games from January to April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Steals 1 day rest?
Bet the over on Andrew Nembhard's steals with one day of rest. The 66.7% hit rate and +0.3 average differential above the line create consistent value worth targeting.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Steals 1 day rest?
Andrew Nembhard averages 1.11 steals on one day of rest compared to the typical 0.83 line, creating a +0.3 differential that represents a 33.7% edge over the posted number.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Nembhard's steal overs specifically on one day of rest. This rest pattern has produced a 27.3% ROI with consistent outperformance, making it the ideal betting spot.