Andrew Nembhard's steals prop shows mild over value in away games, hitting 53.8% of the time with a +0.1 differential above typical lines. The modest +2.8% ROI over 13 games suggests a lean over, though the edge is narrow enough to warrant selective betting.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's away steals performance reflects the typical pattern of guards generating more defensive activity on the road, where opposing offenses often struggle with communication and ball security. His 1.0 average against 0.88 lines creates consistent value, though the margin is thin. The 53.8% hit rate aligns with what we'd expect from a role player who benefits from increased pace and transition opportunities away from home. Indiana's defensive scheme often puts Nembhard in passing lanes during their aggressive pick-and-roll coverage, and road environments typically feature more possessions and looser ball handling. The concerning element is the recent under streak and the relatively small sample size. Nembhard's steal production largely depends on game flow and opponent turnover tendencies, making this prop somewhat volatile. The negative under ROI (-11.9%) suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his road performance, but the overall edge remains modest. His role as a secondary playmaker means steal opportunities often come from anticipation rather than gambling, making his production more sustainable than volume-dependent guards.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Nembhard's consistent road performance and the books' apparent undervaluation create a modest but sustainable edge. Target games against turnover-prone teams or in faster-paced matchups where his anticipation skills shine. The main risk is his limited role in blowouts, but the 1.0 average provides decent cushion above typical 0.5 lines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Steals prop record away games?
Andrew Nembhard hits the over on his steals prop 53.8% of the time in away games, going 7-6 over his last 13 road contests. He averages exactly 1.0 steals per away game against typical lines of 0.88.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Steals away games?
Lean over on Nembhard's steals in away games. The 53.8% hit rate and +2.8% ROI provide a modest edge, especially when targeting faster-paced matchups against turnover-prone opponents where his anticipation skills create more opportunities.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Steals away games?
Nembhard averages 1.0 steals per away game, running 0.12 steals above the typical 0.88 line. This consistent differential of +0.1 has produced a 53.8% over rate across 13 road games this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nembhard's steals props in competitive away games against high-turnover teams or fast-paced opponents. Avoid blowout spots where his minutes might be limited, and focus on games where Indiana's aggressive defensive scheme maximizes his passing lane opportunities.