Andrew Nembhard's steals prop presents a compelling over opportunity with a 60.7% hit rate across 28 games. The Pacers guard averages 0.96 steals against a typical 0.82 line, generating +15.9% ROI on overs. This defensive consistency warrants strong consideration.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's steal production reflects his expanding role in Indiana's defensive scheme and increased court time as a primary ball-handler. The 0.14 average differential above the betting line isn't massive, but it's consistent enough to create meaningful value over a large sample. His 60.7% over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his elevated defensive activity levels since becoming a regular starter. The positive correlation between his minutes and steal opportunities creates a sustainable edge, as Nembhard's role has stabilized around 28-30 minutes per game. His active hands and positioning in passing lanes have improved markedly as he's gained NBA experience. The lack of extreme volatility in his steal numbers (evidenced by manageable streak lengths) indicates this isn't just variance-driven hot shooting. However, the recent two-game under streak and -25.0% under ROI highlight the importance of timing entries carefully. Books may eventually adjust lines upward if this trend continues, potentially eroding the edge. The key sustainability factor is whether Nembhard maintains his current defensive intensity and playing time allocation throughout different game situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Nembhard's consistent defensive activity and favorable line positioning create legitimate value, but the edge isn't overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. Target overs when he's projected for 28+ minutes or facing teams with higher turnover rates. The main risk is line adjustment by sportsbooks as they catch up to his elevated steal production in his expanded role.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Steals prop record all games?
Andrew Nembhard's steals prop shows a 17-11-0 over/under record across 28 games, hitting the over 60.7% of the time. This translates to +15.9% ROI on over bets while under bets have lost -25.0%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Steals all games?
Lean over on Nembhard's steals props. His 0.96 average versus 0.82 typical line creates consistent value, though recent under streak suggests selective timing rather than automatic betting on every game.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Steals all games?
Nembhard averages 0.96 steals per game compared to the typical 0.82 betting line. This +0.14 differential represents a meaningful edge that has sustained across a 28-game sample size from January through April.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nembhard steals overs when he's projected for 28+ minutes or facing turnover-prone opponents. Avoid after back-to-back games or when Indiana has large leads expected, as defensive intensity may decrease.