Andrew Nembhard's rebounding props present a slight under lean with his 46.9% over rate across 32 games. The 6-foot-6 guard averages 2.62 rebounds against a 2.59 line, but the -10.5% ROI on overs suggests consistent market overvaluation of his glass-cleaning ability.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's rebounding profile reflects his role as Indiana's primary facilitator rather than a board-crashing guard. At 2.62 rebounds per game, he barely exceeds the typical 2.59 line, indicating books have accurately priced his limited rebounding upside. The concerning -10.5% ROI on overs reveals a systematic pattern where bettors overestimate his rebounding contributions, likely influenced by his 6-foot-6 frame and occasional defensive rebounding spurts. His position as the Pacers' floor general keeps him focused on initiating offense rather than crashing the glass, particularly on defensive possessions where he's responsible for pushing pace. The modest +1.4% under ROI suggests value exists on the under side, though not dramatically. Nembhard's rebounding ceiling remains capped by Indiana's uptempo system that prioritizes transition opportunities over offensive rebounding. His longest streaks of three games in either direction indicate moderate volatility, but the overall trend favors books setting lines that consistently trap over bettors. The lack of significant differential between his average and the line creates a narrow margin for error, making this more about exploiting market perception than statistical edges.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -10.5% ROI on overs indicates consistent market overvaluation of Nembhard's rebounding ability, while his role as Indiana's primary playmaker limits glass-crashing opportunities. Target unders when lines reach 3.0 or higher, as his 2.62 average provides cushion. Main risk is small sample variance in a stat category with limited volume for guards.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rebounds Prop Lines
Compare Andrew Nembhard props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Rebounds prop record all games?
Andrew Nembhard is 15-17-0 over/under on rebounding props across 32 games, hitting the over just 46.9% of the time. This translates to a -10.5% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have enjoyed a modest +1.4% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Rebounds all games?
Lean under on Andrew Nembhard's rebounding props. His 46.9% over rate and negative ROI for over bettors indicates the market consistently overvalues his rebounding ability. The under side offers better value, particularly when lines reach 3.0 or higher.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Rebounds all games?
Andrew Nembhard averages 2.62 rebounds per game against a typical line of 2.59, showing minimal differential of +0.03. This tight margin indicates books have accurately priced his rebounding output, making profitable betting dependent on market inefficiencies rather than statistical edges.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nembhard rebounding unders when lines inflate to 3.0 or higher, as his 2.62 average provides more cushion. Also consider unders in uptempo matchups where Indiana prioritizes transition offense over offensive rebounding, limiting his opportunities on the glass.