Andrew Nembhard's points production has been disappointingly inconsistent over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time with a brutal -23.6% ROI. His 9.7 average falls 0.2 points short of typical lines, creating clear value on the under despite his recent two-game over streak.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Nembhard's recent scoring struggles, with under bettors enjoying a healthy 14.6% return while over backers have been hemorrhaging money. This 40% over rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects fundamental issues with his offensive role and efficiency. Nembhard's 9.7 scoring average consistently trailing the 9.9 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced offensive impact. The Pacers' guard has shown troubling inconsistency, managing just four overs in 10 games while hitting three consecutive unders at one point. His current two-game over streak appears more like variance than a meaningful shift, especially given the broader pattern of underperformance. The -0.2 differential might seem minimal, but it's significant when considering betting margins and juice. Nembhard's role as a facilitator-first guard limits his ceiling, and his recent shooting efficiency appears compromised. Without significant usage or matchup advantages, his scoring remains capped by both opportunity and execution. The persistence of this trend across 10 games suggests structural rather than temporary factors are at play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Nembhard's consistent underperformance versus his line creates exploitable value. His facilitator-first role naturally limits scoring upside, and the -0.2 average differential indicates oddsmakers are still overvaluing his offensive output. The main risk is his recent two-game over streak continuing, but the broader 10-game sample strongly favors continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 19.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 8.5 | 3.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Points prop record last 10 games?
Andrew Nembhard has gone over his points prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), posting a record of 4-6-0 O/U. This poor over performance has resulted in a -23.6% ROI for over bettors while under backers have enjoyed a profitable 14.6% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Andrew Nembhard's points props. His 40% over rate and -23.6% ROI for overs shows clear value on the under side, especially with his 9.7 average falling short of typical 9.9 lines. The 14.6% ROI on unders confirms this edge.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Points last 10 games?
Andrew Nembhard is averaging 9.7 points over his last 10 games, which falls 0.2 points below the typical line of 9.9. This negative differential of -0.2 indicates he's consistently underperforming expectations, creating value for under bettors in the current market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Nembhard points unders when lines are set at 9.5 or higher, as his 9.7 average suggests consistent underperformance. Avoid betting during his hot streaks, but capitalize when oddsmakers haven't adjusted to his facilitator-first role limiting scoring opportunities.