Andrew Nembhard's points prop shows a pronounced home underperformance, hitting overs just 38.9% of the time across 18 games with a -0.3 differential to his 10.06 average line. The under delivers solid 16.7% ROI while overs hemorrhage -25.8%, creating a clear edge on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's home scoring struggles stem from the Pacers' altered offensive dynamics at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, where his 9.78 average falls consistently short of market expectations. The 38.9% over rate isn't just poor luck—it reflects systematic underperformance in familiar surroundings. Home games often see the Pacers controlling pace and utilizing their full rotation more freely, which naturally caps Nembhard's usage and scoring opportunities. The -25.8% ROI on overs is particularly damaging, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his home tendencies. His longest under streak of five games indicates sustained periods where his role contracts at home, likely due to increased rest for key players and more balanced offensive distribution. The sample size of 18 games provides reasonable confidence, though the absence of recent form data limits our ability to identify evolving patterns. What's most compelling is the consistency—Nembhard rarely explodes offensively at home, making the under a reliable target. The current streak of one over suggests potential mean reversion, but his historical home pattern suggests any uptick will be temporary rather than indicative of a fundamental shift in his home scoring profile.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nembhard's home scoring consistently disappoints, with the under providing steady 16.7% ROI while overs crater at -25.8%. Target his points under when the Pacers play at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, especially if the line sits around his 10.06 average. The main risk is variance—any single game can buck the trend—but the pattern is too strong to ignore.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 8.5 | 3.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 8.5 | 7.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 8.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Points prop record home games?
Andrew Nembhard's points prop record in home games stands at 7-11-0 over/under, hitting overs just 38.9% of the time. This poor over rate across 18 games creates a significant edge for under bettors seeking consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Points home games?
Bet under on Andrew Nembhard's points in home games. The data strongly supports this approach with 16.7% ROI on unders versus -25.8% losses on overs. His home scoring consistently falls short of market expectations.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Points home games?
Andrew Nembhard averages 9.78 points in home games, falling 0.28 points below his typical betting line of 10.06. This negative differential of -0.3 points consistently favors under bettors seeking reliable value in home contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Andrew Nembhard's points under specifically in home games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Avoid overs entirely given the -25.8% ROI. The best opportunities arise when lines sit near his 10.06 average, maximizing the edge from his home underperformance.