Andrew Nembhard's points props show clear under value with a 44.4% over rate (16-20 record) and positive 6.1% ROI on unders. His 10.28 average barely exceeds the 9.81 line by just 0.5 points, creating systematic under opportunities.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a consistent pattern of books overvaluing Nembhard's scoring output. His 44.4% over rate across 36 games indicates the market hasn't properly adjusted to his role as Indiana's facilitator-first guard. The modest 0.5-point differential between his average and typical line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in his ceiling games rather than his consistent floor. Nembhard's value comes through playmaking and defensive contributions that don't translate to points, yet books continue setting lines that reflect a more aggressive scorer. The -15.2% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors chasing his occasional explosive performances while ignoring his primary function within Indiana's system. His role alongside Tyrese Haliburton limits his shot attempts, as Nembhard often defers to higher-usage teammates in crucial scoring situations. The 6.1% under ROI demonstrates sustainable value, particularly when considering his consistency in staying below inflated expectations. Without significant role changes or injuries to key scorers, this trend appears likely to persist as books struggle to properly calibrate his scoring ceiling versus his actual production patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.1% under ROI and 55.6% under rate provide consistent value against inflated lines. Nembhard's facilitator role limits scoring opportunities, making books' pricing consistently optimistic. Target unders when lines exceed 10 points, especially in games where Indiana's primary scorers are healthy and Nembhard's playmaking duties increase.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 19.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 10.5 | 11.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 8.5 | 3.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 8.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 18.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 15.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Points prop record all games?
Andrew Nembhard has gone over his points prop in 16 of 36 games (44.4%) with an average of 10.28 points. His under record stands at 20-16, showing consistent value on the under side of his props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Points all games?
Lean under on Andrew Nembhard's points props. The 55.6% under rate and positive 6.1% ROI provide sustainable value, especially when lines exceed 10 points and his facilitator role limits scoring opportunities.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Points all games?
Andrew Nembhard averages 10.28 points per game compared to his typical 9.81 line, creating just a 0.5-point differential. This narrow margin suggests books are overvaluing his scoring ceiling relative to consistent production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nembhard under props when lines exceed 10 points and Indiana's primary scorers are healthy. His facilitator role becomes more pronounced in these spots, naturally limiting his scoring attempts and opportunities.