Andrew Nembhard's blocks prop presents one of the season's most reliable under trends, hitting just 11.1% of overs across 27 games with a devastating -0.4 differential from the 0.5 line. The Pacers guard averages only 0.11 blocks per game, making the under a strong lean in most situations.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's blocks production represents a fundamental mismatch between his role and the betting market's expectations. As Indiana's primary point guard, Nembhard operates predominantly on the perimeter, focusing on playmaking and ball movement rather than rim protection or help defense. His 0.11 blocks per game average reflects this positional reality - guards who spend most possessions initiating offense rarely generate significant block numbers. The 10-game under streak within this sample demonstrates the consistency of this trend, suggesting sportsbooks have been slow to adjust the line despite overwhelming evidence. Nembhard's 6'0" frame and guard-heavy responsibilities create natural limitations for block production. Unlike versatile wings who might rotate into help positions, Nembhard's defensive assignments typically keep him matched against opposing guards on the perimeter. The Pacers' defensive scheme, which relies on their frontcourt for rim protection, further limits Nembhard's opportunities for blocks. The -78.8% ROI on overs indicates this isn't just a statistical quirk but a systematic pricing inefficiency. With only three overs in 27 games, bettors have found consistent value on the under, generating nearly 70% ROI. This level of predictability suggests the market hasn't properly calibrated expectations for a traditional point guard's defensive impact.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Nembhard's role as a perimeter-focused point guard creates a structural mismatch with the 0.5 blocks line, evidenced by hitting just 11.1% of overs. The ideal conditions are any standard game situation where he maintains his typical guard responsibilities. The main risk is an unusually chaotic game with multiple lead changes forcing unconventional defensive rotations, but even then, his physical limitations make blocks unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Blocks prop record all games?
Nembhard's blocks prop record shows 3-24-0 over/under across 27 games, hitting just 11.1% of overs. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in player props, with the under cashing 88.9% of the time.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Blocks all games?
Bet the under on Nembhard's blocks props. His 11.1% over rate and -0.4 differential from the 0.5 line make this one of the season's most reliable under bets, generating 69.7% ROI for under bettors.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Blocks all games?
Nembhard averages 0.11 blocks per game, creating a massive -0.4 differential from the typical 0.5 line. This means he falls short of the over by nearly half a block per game on average.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Nembhard's blocks under in standard game situations where he maintains his point guard role. Avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time might create unusual defensive rotations, though even then blocks remain unlikely.