Andrew Nembhard has been crushing assists overs at a 70% clip over his last 10 games, averaging 5.2 assists against a typical 4.0 line for a robust +1.2 differential. The 33.6% ROI on overs tells a compelling story of sustainable playmaking value.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's assists surge reflects his expanded role as Indiana's primary facilitator, particularly evident in the 5.2 average that significantly outpaces standard 4.0 lines. The 70% over rate isn't just hot shooting variance—it represents a fundamental shift in usage patterns where Nembhard is seeing increased ball-handling responsibilities in the Pacers' uptempo system. The +1.2 differential suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his elevated playmaking role, creating consistent line value. What makes this trend particularly bankable is the lack of extreme outliers skewing the data; Nembhard is hitting overs through consistent 5-7 assist performances rather than boom-or-bust games. The 5-game over streak followed by brief under stretches indicates natural variance within an overall upward trajectory. However, the 42.7% ROI loss on unders serves as a warning about regression risk—assists props are notoriously volatile and dependent on teammates converting shots. The trend's strength lies in Nembhard's clear role definition as Indiana's setup man, but sustainability questions emerge given the Pacers' injury situations and potential lineup changes that could redistribute playmaking duties.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Nembhard's 5.2 average against 4.0 lines represents genuine value driven by expanded playmaking duties rather than unsustainable hot streaks. The ideal spot comes when Indiana faces pace-up matchups or when key scorers return from injury, creating more assist opportunities. Main risk is lineup volatility affecting his ball-handling role and natural regression from the 70% over rate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Andrew Nembhard has gone over his assists prop in 7 of his last 10 games for a 70% over rate. His 7-3-0 over/under record has generated a strong 33.6% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Nembhard's assists props. His 5.2 average significantly exceeds typical 4.0 lines, and the 70% over rate reflects expanded playmaking duties rather than unsustainable variance. Medium confidence due to assists volatility.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Assists last 10 games?
Nembhard is averaging 5.2 assists over his last 10 games compared to standard 4.0 lines, creating a favorable +1.2 differential. This gap suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his increased facilitating role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nembhard assists overs in pace-up matchups or when Indiana's key scorers are healthy and available. His playmaking value peaks when the Pacers can run their full offensive system with multiple scoring threats.