Andrew Nembhard's home assists prop shows marginal over value with a 9-8 record (52.9% overs) but averages 3.82 versus a 4.03 line. The modest +1.1% ROI on overs suggests limited edge in a relatively small sample. Lean slightly toward selective over betting in optimal conditions.
Expert Analysis
Nembhard's home assists trend reveals a fascinating disconnect between outcome frequency and actual production. While overs hit at a respectable 52.9% clip across 17 games, his 3.82 average sits 0.21 assists below the typical 4.03 line, creating a challenging dynamic for bettors. This suggests the market may be slightly overvaluing his playmaking upside at home, where the Pacers' faster pace and crowd energy theoretically should boost his assist opportunities. The modest +1.1% ROI on overs indicates razor-thin value, while the concerning -10.2% under ROI suggests the market occasionally underprices his floor. The current single-game under streak follows his longest under streak of five games, indicating potential volatility in his distribution role. Nembhard's assist production likely correlates heavily with game script and the health of primary scorers like Tyrese Haliburton, making matchup analysis crucial. His role as a secondary facilitator means his assists can spike in uptempo affairs but disappear when Indiana struggles offensively or when Haliburton dominates ball-handling duties.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 52.9% over rate provides slight mathematical edge despite the negative production differential. Target games where Haliburton is questionable or Indiana faces pace-up spots at home, as Nembhard's assist ceiling rises significantly with expanded playmaking responsibilities. Main risk is his inconsistent role and the market's apparent awareness of his home splits, creating minimal value in most standard situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-02-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Andrew Nembhard's Assists prop record home games?
Nembhard's home assists record stands at 9-8 over/under (52.9% overs) across 17 games. He averages 3.82 assists against a typical 4.03 line, showing modest over frequency despite below-line production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Andrew Nembhard Assists home games?
Lean slightly toward overs in selective spots, particularly when Haliburton is questionable or Indiana faces pace-up matchups. The 52.9% over rate provides minimal edge, but avoid betting unders given the poor -10.2% ROI.
What's Andrew Nembhard's average Assists home games?
Nembhard averages 3.82 assists in home games, sitting 0.21 below the typical 4.03 line. This negative differential creates an interesting contrast with his 52.9% over rate, suggesting occasional ceiling games boost his hit rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target home games where Haliburton is questionable or Indiana faces high-pace opponents. These conditions expand Nembhard's playmaking role significantly, offering the best opportunities for over value despite his typically modest assist production.