Amen Thompson's steals prop presents a perfectly neutral situation with a 5-5 over/under record and 1.5 average matching the typical line exactly. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates slight juice disadvantage with no statistical edge present.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's steals production over this 10-game sample reveals a textbook case of market efficiency. His 1.5 average steals per game aligns precisely with standard book lines, while the 50% hit rate on overs suggests oddsmakers have accurately priced his defensive activity level. The balanced 5-5 split indicates Thompson's steal production lacks the volatility that creates betting value, as he's neither consistently exceeding expectations nor falling short. His current two-game over streak follows a three-game under run, demonstrating the random nature of his defensive contributions. Without meaningful splits data or situational context, Thompson's steals appear driven by standard defensive rotations rather than exploitable matchup advantages. The equal longest streaks of three games in both directions further support the conclusion that his steal production follows expected variance patterns. Young players like Thompson often show inconsistent defensive stats as they develop, but this sample suggests his floor time and defensive role have stabilized around the 1.5 steal mark. The negative ROI on both sides reflects the inherent juice disadvantage when betting props without a statistical edge.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. Thompson's steals prop offers no statistical advantage with perfectly balanced results and market-accurate pricing. The -4.5% ROI on both sides confirms the juice disadvantage outweighs any potential edge. Without favorable splits or situational context, this represents a classic avoid spot where the book has efficiently priced the player's true talent level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Thompson went 5-5 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. His 1.5 average steals matched the typical 1.5 line perfectly, showing no statistical edge in either direction.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Steals last 10 games?
Pass on Thompson's steals props entirely. The 50% over rate with -4.5% ROI on both sides means you're paying juice without any statistical advantage. Wait for better spots with clearer edges.
What's Amen Thompson's average Steals last 10 games?
Thompson averaged exactly 1.5 steals over his last 10 games, matching the standard 1.5 line with zero differential. This perfect alignment indicates the market has accurately priced his defensive production level.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Thompson's steals props until situational advantages emerge. Look for matchups against high-turnover teams or when he's playing extended minutes due to injuries, as standard conditions offer no betting edge.