Amen Thompson shows a modest 53.8% over rate on rebounds with one day of rest, hitting 7 overs in 13 games while averaging 9.23 rebounds against an 8.81 line. The +0.4 differential suggests slight value, but the narrow edge and limited sample warrant caution.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's rebounding with one day rest presents an intriguing but measured opportunity. The 9.23 average against an 8.81 line creates a consistent +0.4 edge that has translated to 53.8% over success across 13 games. What makes this trend compelling is Thompson's versatility as a 6'7" guard-forward who can crash the boards from multiple positions. The one-day rest scenario likely keeps him fresh enough to maintain his aggressive rebounding style without the fatigue that might limit his motor on longer rest. However, the modest 2.8% ROI over suggests the market has largely caught up to this edge. The sample size, while respectable for a specific rest scenario, still carries inherent volatility. Thompson's rebounding can fluctuate significantly based on game script, opponent size, and Houston's pace of play. The fact that he's managed just a 1-game over streak with longer drought periods (3-game under streak) indicates this isn't a dominant trend but rather a slight statistical lean. The key concern is regression - a 53.8% hit rate on a +0.4 differential could easily swing negative with a few tough matchups against bigger frontcourts or faster-paced games where positioning becomes more challenging.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.4 differential between Thompson's 9.23 average and typical 8.81 lines provides measurable value, supported by his 7-6 over record. Target this when Houston faces teams that rebound poorly or play at a moderate pace where Thompson can establish position. Main risk is the narrow edge - just a couple of poor rebounding games could quickly erode profitability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 8.5 | 4.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 9.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 14.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 8.5 | 15.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 8.5 | 10.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Rebounds prop record 1 day rest?
Thompson's rebounds prop with one day rest shows a 7-6-0 over/under record across 13 games, hitting 53.8% overs. He averages 9.23 rebounds in these situations, creating a +0.4 differential against typical 8.81 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Rebounds 1 day rest?
Lean over on Thompson's rebounds with one day rest. The +0.4 average differential and 53.8% over rate provide measurable value, though the edge is modest. Target favorable matchups against poor rebounding teams for best results.
What's Amen Thompson's average Rebounds 1 day rest?
Thompson averages 9.23 rebounds with one day of rest compared to typical lines around 8.81. This +0.4 differential has translated to 7 overs in 13 games, though the edge is narrow enough to require selective betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities come when Houston faces teams that struggle on the boards or play at moderate pace. Avoid when Thompson faces bigger frontcourts or in potential blowouts where his minutes might be limited in fourth quarters.