Amen Thompson's points prop on one day rest shows marginal over value with a 53.8% hit rate (7-6 record) and tiny +0.03 average differential. The positive 2.8% ROI on overs suggests slight market inefficiency, making this a lean over situation despite the minimal edge.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's points production on one day rest reveals a fascinating case study in market efficiency versus micro-edges. His 13.15 average against a 13.12 line represents nearly perfect calibration, yet the 53.8% over rate and positive ROI suggest books are slightly undervaluing his rest-day scoring. The Rockets' second-year guard benefits from Houston's uptempo pace following rest, as the team historically pushes transition opportunities when fresh. Thompson's versatility allows him to contribute across multiple statistical categories, but his points prop specifically gains value when the Rockets face pace-up spots or weaker perimeter defenses. The sample size of 13 games provides reasonable confidence, though the tight margins demand careful spot selection. Most concerning is the -11.9% under ROI, indicating overs may be inflated by a few outlier performances. Thompson's role fluctuates based on veteran availability, making lineup context crucial. His points production correlates strongly with minutes played, and rest days often coincide with expanded opportunity if Houston manages veteran workloads. The current two-game over streak suggests recent positive variance, but his consistent 13+ point average on rest indicates legitimate skill-based improvement rather than pure luck.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 2.8% ROI edge and 53.8% hit rate provide modest value despite minimal average differential. Target this prop when Thompson faces pace-up matchups or depleted opponent backcourts, as his transition scoring spikes with fresh legs. Primary risk is Houston's inconsistent rotation management potentially limiting his minutes in blowout scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 14.5 | 15.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 11.5 | 13.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 14.5 | 8.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 25.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 11.5 | 20.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 11.5 | 19.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Amen Thompson goes 7-6 over his points prop on one day rest, hitting overs 53.8% of the time across 13 games from February to April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Points 1 day rest?
Lean over on Thompson's points prop with one day rest. The 53.8% hit rate and 2.8% ROI provide slight value, especially in pace-up matchups.
What's Amen Thompson's average Points 1 day rest?
Thompson averages 13.15 points on one day rest compared to typical lines of 13.12, creating a minimal but positive 0.03 point differential favoring overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's points props when Houston plays pace-up opponents or faces depleted backcourts following rest days, as his transition scoring increases with fresh legs.