Amen Thompson's blocks props on one day rest present a clear under opportunity, with just a 33.3% over rate across 12 games (4-8-0 record). The rookie averages 0.33 blocks against typical 0.5 lines, creating a meaningful -0.2 differential that translates to solid under value.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's blocks production on one day rest reveals the limitations of a rookie defender still adapting to NBA pace and positioning. His 0.33 average against 0.5 lines isn't just a small sample quirk—it reflects the reality of his defensive role and physical development. The -36.4% ROI on overs tells a story of consistent market overvaluation, likely driven by Thompson's athletic profile and highlight-reel potential that doesn't translate to consistent blocks production. The 4-game under streak within this sample suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine pattern tied to his defensive responsibilities and positioning. Houston's defensive scheme often has Thompson roaming rather than anchoring near the rim, reducing his block opportunities compared to traditional shot-blockers. The 27.3% under ROI demonstrates real value, particularly when considering that rookie defenders typically struggle with timing and positioning early in their careers. Thompson's blocks production appears more dependent on game flow and opponent style than his individual rest situation, making the under a consistently profitable approach when the line sits at 0.5 or higher.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 0.33 average creates legitimate value against standard 0.5 lines, supported by strong under ROI and consistent market mispricing. The ideal conditions involve standard rest situations where his defensive role remains consistent. Main risk is a defensive scheme change or matchup against teams that attack the rim more aggressively, potentially creating additional block opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Thompson's blocks prop record on one day rest stands at 4-8-0, hitting the over just 33.3% of the time across 12 games. This represents a significant under trend with his average of 0.33 blocks falling consistently short of standard lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Blocks 1 day rest?
Bet under on Thompson's blocks props with one day rest. His 0.33 average creates clear value against 0.5 lines, supported by strong under ROI of 27.3% and a consistent pattern of falling short of market expectations.
What's Amen Thompson's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Thompson averages 0.33 blocks on one day rest, creating a -0.2 differential against typical 0.5 lines. This gap represents meaningful value for under bettors, as he consistently falls short of market pricing by a significant margin.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's blocks unders on standard one day rest situations with 0.5 lines or higher. Avoid when Houston faces teams that heavily attack the rim or when his defensive role might shift due to injuries or matchup considerations.