Amen Thompson's blocks prop has been severely overvalued, hitting under in 7 of 10 games (30% over rate) with a brutal -42.7% ROI for overs. Thompson's 0.3 average sits well below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's blocks struggles stem from his offensive-focused role and limited rim protection opportunities in Houston's system. The 6'7" guard-forward operates primarily on the perimeter, logging significant minutes as a playmaker rather than a traditional shot-blocker. His 0.3 blocks per game over this stretch reflects both his positioning away from the basket and the Rockets' defensive scheme that doesn't emphasize help-side rim protection from wings. The concerning -0.2 differential between his production and the standard 0.5 line suggests books haven't adjusted to his actual usage patterns. Thompson's longest under streak of 4 games highlights the consistency of this trend, while his single-game over maximum of 1 block demonstrates the ceiling limitations. The 33.6% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, but recreational action continues inflating the line. Thompson's youth and athleticism create perception value that doesn't match his current defensive role, making this a classic case of public overvaluation based on physical tools rather than situational deployment.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 0.3 average creates a mathematical edge against 0.5 lines, supported by role-based limitations in rim protection opportunities. Target games where Houston faces pace-up opponents who attack the perimeter rather than pound the paint. Primary risk is small sample variance, as one multi-block game could temporarily shift the trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Blocks prop record last 10 games?
Thompson went under his blocks prop in 7 of 10 games (30% over rate) with an average of 0.3 blocks per game. The under bets generated a 33.6% ROI while overs lost 42.7%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Blocks last 10 games?
Bet under on Thompson's blocks props. His 0.3 average consistently falls short of typical 0.5 lines, creating mathematical value. The trend shows sustainability based on his perimeter-focused defensive role.
What's Amen Thompson's average Blocks last 10 games?
Thompson averaged 0.3 blocks per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.2 blocks below the standard 0.5 line. This differential creates consistent value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson blocks unders when Houston faces perimeter-oriented offenses that don't attack the rim heavily. Avoid games against traditional big lineups that might force more help-side rim protection.