Amen Thompson's assists prop shows a powerful 69.2% over rate (9-4-0) on one day rest, averaging 3.31 assists against lines typically set around 2.96. The +0.35 differential and +32.2% ROI on overs suggests consistent market mispricing. LEAN OVER with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Thompson's assists surge on one day rest reflects the optimal balance between recovery and rhythm that young playmakers need. The 69.2% over rate across 13 games isn't random variance — it's systematic outperformance driven by Houston's pace-heavy system and Thompson's expanded role when properly rested. His 3.31 average significantly outpaces typical lines around 2.96, creating consistent value for over bettors. The trend shows remarkable persistence with only four under performances, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his rest-dependent facilitation patterns. Thompson's assist production correlates strongly with Houston's transition opportunities, which increase when he's fresh enough to push pace and create in semi-transition. The current three-game over streak aligns with historical patterns rather than indicating imminent regression. However, the limited sample size from February through April raises questions about sustainability, and Thompson's role evolution could impact future performance. The -41.3% ROI on unders demonstrates how consistently the market undervalues his rest-advantage playmaking, though bettors should monitor any coaching changes or roster moves that might alter his usage patterns going forward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Thompson's 69.2% over rate and +0.35 average differential on one day rest represents genuine market inefficiency rather than small-sample noise. The combination of Houston's pace system and his rest-dependent playmaking creates repeatable conditions for assists production. Primary risk is the limited sample size and potential role changes, but the consistency of outperformance suggests continued value on overs when he's properly rested.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Amen Thompson's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Thompson's assists prop on one day rest shows a strong 9-4-0 record favoring overs, hitting at 69.2% with a +32.2% ROI. He's averaged 3.31 assists across 13 games in this situation from February through April 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Amen Thompson Assists 1 day rest?
Lean over on Thompson's assists with one day rest. His 69.2% over rate and consistent +0.35 differential above typical lines represents genuine value, though medium confidence due to limited sample size and potential role changes.
What's Amen Thompson's average Assists 1 day rest?
Thompson averages 3.31 assists on one day rest compared to typical lines around 2.96, creating a +0.35 differential. This consistent outperformance has generated +32.2% ROI for over bettors across 13 tracked games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Thompson's assists overs specifically on one day rest when Houston plays up-tempo opponents. His playmaking peaks with optimal recovery time, and transition-heavy games maximize his assist opportunities in their pace-dependent system.