Alperen Sengun's three-point props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over the last 10 games with a devastating -42.7% ROI on overs. The Turkish center is averaging 0.4 makes against a 0.5 line, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Alperen Sengun's three-point struggles reflect his evolving role as Houston's primary facilitator rather than a perimeter threat. The 7-foot center has transformed into a point-center, focusing on playmaking from the high post and paint rather than stretching the floor. His 0.4 average against the 0.5 line represents a fundamental shift in offensive philosophy - Sengun is taking fewer attempts from beyond the arc as the Rockets utilize his exceptional passing ability and interior presence. The current three-game under streak isn't coincidental; it's systematic. Houston's pace has increased, but Sengun's three-point attempts have decreased as he's become more selective with outside shots. His shooting form remains solid, but the opportunities simply aren't materializing in game flow. The persistence of this trend suggests books haven't fully adjusted to Sengun's reduced perimeter role. Centers who transition from stretch-five to traditional facilitator roles typically see sustained drops in three-point volume, not temporary slumps. The 33.6% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, but recreational action continues inflating the over price.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Sengun's role transformation from perimeter threat to primary facilitator creates sustainable value on three-point unders. The 30% over rate reflects systematic changes rather than shooting variance. Target this prop when Sengun faces elite interior defenses that force Houston to rely more heavily on his playmaking rather than outside shooting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alperen Sengun's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Sengun has gone over his three-pointers made prop just 3 times in his last 10 games (30% rate) with a 3-7-0 record. The under has been significantly more profitable with a 33.6% ROI compared to overs' -42.7% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alperen Sengun 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Bet the under on Sengun's three-pointers made props. His role as Houston's primary facilitator has reduced his perimeter attempts, creating consistent value. The 30% over rate and current three-game under streak support this approach with medium confidence.
What's Alperen Sengun's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Sengun is averaging 0.4 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which sits 0.1 below the typical 0.5 line. This negative differential of -0.1 consistently favors under bettors in a statistically significant sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sengun three-point unders when Houston faces elite interior defenses that force more playmaking. Avoid when the Rockets play small-ball lineups or trail significantly, as these situations increase his perimeter attempt frequency and over probability.