Alperen Sengun's three-pointers made prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity with just 37.0% overs hitting across 27 games. The Rockets center averages 0.48 makes against a 0.5 line, delivering +20.2% ROI on unders while currently riding a five-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic inefficiency in how oddsmakers price Alperen Sengun's three-point volume on the road. At 0.48 makes per away game against a consistent 0.5 line, Sengun falls short of expectations by a narrow but meaningful margin that compounds over time. This isn't about a center suddenly becoming Steph Curry—it's about understanding role and opportunity. Away environments typically reduce offensive rhythm for role players, and Sengun's primary value comes through post play, passing, and rebounding rather than perimeter shooting. The current five-game under streak suggests this trend has legs, particularly given that his longest over streak was just three games. The -29.3% ROI on overs tells the story of consistent market overvaluation, while the +20.2% under return demonstrates the edge available to sharp bettors. Sengun's shooting profile doesn't change dramatically based on venue, but the subtle reduction in offensive flow and increased defensive intensity on the road creates just enough friction to keep him below that 0.5 threshold more often than not. This is exactly the type of grinding edge that separates profitable bettors from recreational players.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 37.0% over rate and +20.2% under ROI create a sustainable edge, especially with Sengun currently riding five straight unders. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, as the 0.48 average provides consistent value. Main risk is variance in a small sample, but the trend aligns with Sengun's role-based limitations on the perimeter.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alperen Sengun's 3-Pointers Made prop record away games?
Alperen Sengun's three-pointers made prop shows a 10-17-0 over/under record in away games, hitting the over just 37.0% of the time across 27 games. This represents a significant under bias with strong historical consistency favoring the under bet.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alperen Sengun 3-Pointers Made away games?
Bet under on Alperen Sengun's three-pointers made in away games. The 37.0% over rate and +20.2% under ROI create a clear edge, especially with his current five-game under streak and 0.48 average against the 0.5 line.
What's Alperen Sengun's average 3-Pointers Made away games?
Alperen Sengun averages 0.48 three-pointers made in away games, falling just short of the typical 0.5 line. This small but consistent gap has proven profitable for under bettors, generating positive ROI over 27 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Sengun's three-point props when Houston plays away games and the line is set at 0.5 makes. His road shooting profile combined with reduced offensive rhythm creates the ideal conditions for under value.