Alex Caruso's three-pointers made prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 29.4% of overs across 17 games with a devastating -43.9% ROI on the over side. Currently riding a four-game under streak, Caruso averages 1.65 makes against a 1.74 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Caruso's road three-point struggles stem from his role as a defensive-first guard who takes fewer quality looks away from home. The 0.1 make deficit versus the betting line appears modest, but it's devastating when compounded across 17 games, generating a 34.8% ROI for under bettors. The Thunder's road offensive efficiency likely impacts Caruso's shot selection, as he defers to primary scorers in hostile environments. His current four-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather part of a broader pattern where he's hit two or more threes in just five of 17 road contests. The consistency of this trend suggests it's systematic rather than random variance. Oddsmakers appear slow to adjust, consistently pricing his line around 1.74 despite clear evidence he performs below that threshold on the road. The lack of recent hot streaks (longest over streak just two games) reinforces that this isn't a temporary shooting slump but a legitimate road/home split. With Caruso's defensive responsibilities often intensifying in away games, his offensive opportunities naturally decrease, making the under a mathematically sound play until the market corrects.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 29.4% over rate and -0.1 average differential create consistent value, though the sample size of 17 games prevents higher conviction. Target this prop when Caruso faces elite perimeter defenses on the road or in back-to-back situations where his legs might be compromised. The main risk is positive regression, as elite shooters rarely sustain such poor road splits indefinitely, but the current market inefficiency remains exploitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Alex Caruso's 3-Pointers Made prop record away games?
Alex Caruso has gone under his three-pointers made prop in 12 of 17 away games (70.6% under rate) with a record of 5-12-0 over/under. He's averaging 1.65 makes per road game against typical lines around 1.74, creating a consistent 0.1 make deficit.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Alex Caruso 3-Pointers Made away games?
Bet under on Alex Caruso's three-pointers made in away games. The 70.6% under rate and 34.8% ROI provide strong mathematical backing, especially with his current four-game under streak showing no signs of positive regression in road environments.
What's Alex Caruso's average 3-Pointers Made away games?
Alex Caruso averages 1.65 three-pointers made in away games, which sits 0.1 makes below the typical betting line of 1.74. This seemingly small gap has generated massive value for under bettors, producing a 34.8% ROI across 17 road contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Alex Caruso three-pointers made unders on road games against strong perimeter defenses or in back-to-back situations. The prop offers best value when his defensive workload increases, naturally limiting offensive opportunities and three-point attempts in hostile road environments.