Aaron Nesmith's points prop on one day rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.4% overs across 29 games with a brutal -21.0% ROI on overs. His 12.1 average sits 0.8 points below the typical 12.88 line, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Nesmith's struggles on abbreviated rest. His 41.4% over rate on one day rest suggests the market consistently overvalues his scoring ability in these spots, likely because oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for his reduced effectiveness when playing every other night. The -0.8 point differential between his actual average (12.1) and the typical line (12.88) represents significant market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the sample size credibility—29 games provides substantial statistical weight, and the consistency of the underperformance suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine pattern. Nesmith's role as a complementary scorer makes him especially vulnerable on back-to-back situations where his energy and shooting touch suffer. The +11.9% ROI on unders demonstrates this has been a profitable fade, while the devastating -21.0% ROI on overs shows how badly the market has mispriced these spots. Without significant role changes or usage spikes, this pattern should persist as Nesmith continues to struggle with the physical demands of playing on one day rest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 41.4% over rate and +11.9% under ROI create a solid contrarian opportunity, especially when the line sits near his season average around 12.5-13 points. Target spots where the number exceeds 12.5, as Nesmith's 12.1 average on one day rest provides clear mathematical edge. Main risk is a potential role expansion or hot shooting variance, but the consistent underperformance pattern outweighs these concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | OPP | 12.5 | 17.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2025-04-04 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-04-02 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 7.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 12.5 | 17.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 14.5 | 14.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 13.5 | 9.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 11.5 | 8.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Aaron Nesmith's points prop record on one day rest is 12-17-0 over/under (41.4% overs) across 29 games from January 2024 through April 2025. The under has hit 58.6% of the time, generating an +11.9% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Aaron Nesmith's points when he has one day rest. The 41.4% over rate and +11.9% under ROI create clear value, especially when the line exceeds 12.5 points. His 12.1 average on abbreviated rest consistently falls short of market expectations.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average Points 1 day rest?
Aaron Nesmith averages 12.1 points on one day rest compared to the typical line of 12.88 points. This -0.8 point differential represents significant market inefficiency, as he consistently underperforms the number by nearly a full point in these situations.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Aaron Nesmith's points props is on one day rest when the line sits at 12.5 or higher. His 12.1 average in these spots creates mathematical edge, while the 41.4% over rate shows consistent market overvaluation of his abbreviated-rest performance.