Aaron Nesmith's blocks prop on one day rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 47.8% overs across 23 games with a -8.7% ROI on the over side. His 0.61 average barely exceeds the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Nesmith's defensive limitations in condensed scheduling. His 11-12 over/under record on one day rest reflects the reality that blocks are largely opportunity-driven, and Nesmith's role as a wing defender limits his rim protection chances. The 0.61 average against a 0.5 line appears favorable for overs at first glance, but the negative ROI reveals the market's efficiency in pricing this prop. Wings typically generate blocks through help defense and transition situations, both of which become less frequent when teams prioritize rest and rotation management on back-to-back scenarios. The current three-game under streak aligns with this pattern, as fatigue and reduced defensive intensity naturally suppress peripheral stats like blocks. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Nesmith's consistent role and usage - he's not a shot-blocking specialist whose defensive assignments vary dramatically game to game. His blocks come incidentally, making them highly variable and difficult to predict on a game-by-game basis. The -0.4% ROI on unders suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to this reality, creating a sustainable edge for disciplined bettors willing to fade the over consistently.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 47.8% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs creates a clear mathematical edge, especially with Nesmith currently riding a three-game under streak. The ideal conditions involve standard rest patterns where his defensive role remains consistent. The main risk lies in matchups against turnover-prone teams that create additional steal and block opportunities through chaotic possessions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Nesmith's Blocks prop record 1 day rest?
Aaron Nesmith's blocks prop on one day rest shows an 11-12 over/under record (47.8% overs) across 23 games from January to April 2024, with a -8.7% ROI on overs and -0.4% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Nesmith Blocks 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Aaron Nesmith's blocks prop with one day rest. The 47.8% over rate and negative ROI on overs create a mathematical edge, particularly with his current three-game under streak.
What's Aaron Nesmith's average Blocks 1 day rest?
Aaron Nesmith averages 0.61 blocks on one day rest compared to the typical 0.5 line. While this seems favorable for overs, the actual over rate of just 47.8% reveals the market's efficiency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Nesmith blocks unders during standard rest patterns against defensively sound opponents. Avoid when facing turnover-heavy teams that create additional transition and help defense opportunities for peripheral stats.