Aaron Gordon's three-point prop with 2+ days rest shows a clear under bias, hitting just 41.7% overs across 12 games with a -20.4% ROI on overs. His 0.67 average barely exceeds the typical 0.5 line, making this a consistent fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's three-point shooting with extended rest reveals a fascinating disconnect between expectation and reality. Despite averaging 0.67 makes per game in these situations—technically above the standard 0.5 line—the under has delivered consistent value with an 11.4% ROI. This suggests the market overvalues Gordon's three-point potential when well-rested, perhaps expecting him to be more aggressive from deep. The reality is Gordon remains primarily a paint-oriented player regardless of rest. His role in Denver's offense emphasizes cutting, screening, and finishing around the rim rather than perimeter shooting. The 41.7% over rate across 12 games represents a meaningful sample that shows clear regression toward his natural shooting tendencies. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Gordon's consistent role and usage patterns. Unlike guards who might see fluctuating shot attempts based on game flow, Gordon's offensive responsibilities remain relatively static. The extended rest doesn't translate to increased three-point volume or accuracy—it simply allows him to execute his existing role more efficiently. The -20.4% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overprices this prop in rest situations, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors who recognize Gordon's limitations as a volume three-point shooter.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 11.4% under ROI and 58.3% under rate create a modest but consistent edge against an overpriced market. Gordon's role-based limitations as a three-point shooter persist regardless of rest, making the under the preferred play when the line sits at 0.5. The main risk is variance in a smaller 12-game sample, but the underlying logic remains sound given Gordon's offensive profile.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's 3-Pointers Made prop record 2+ days rest?
Aaron Gordon has gone 5-7 over/under on his three-pointers made prop with 2+ days rest, hitting overs just 41.7% of the time across 12 games from October 2023 to March 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Lean under on Aaron Gordon's three-pointers made with 2+ days rest. The under has delivered 11.4% ROI while overs show -20.4% ROI, indicating consistent market overpricing of his perimeter shooting.
What's Aaron Gordon's average 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Aaron Gordon averages 0.67 three-pointers made with 2+ days rest, just 0.17 above the typical 0.5 line. This minimal edge doesn't justify the over premium consistently priced into the market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon three-point unders specifically when he has 2+ days rest and the line is 0.5. His paint-oriented role and limited perimeter volume create the best under value in these rest situations.