Aaron Gordon's steals prop presents a compelling home advantage, hitting the over in 59.1% of games (13-9 record) with a +0.18 average differential above the 0.5 line. The 12.8% ROI on overs combined with his current three-game over streak signals sustainable value. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's home steals performance reveals a player who thrives in familiar surroundings, averaging 0.68 steals versus the standard 0.5 line across 22 games. This 36% edge stems from Denver's defensive system at Ball Arena, where Gordon operates as a help defender with enhanced court awareness and positioning. The Nuggets' home pace and crowd energy create more deflection opportunities, while Gordon's comfort level allows for aggressive gambles that might not translate on the road. His 59.1% over rate isn't just statistical noise—it reflects genuine environmental advantages. The current three-game over streak aligns with his season-long pattern, where his longest over streak reached five games compared to just two consecutive unders. This suggests consistency rather than hot-and-cold variance. The 12.8% ROI on overs validates the market's slight undervaluation of Gordon's home steal production. However, the -21.9% under ROI indicates sharp line movement when books adjust, making timing crucial. Gordon's role as Denver's versatile defender means his steal opportunities correlate with opponent pace and ball movement, creating matchup-dependent variance that smart bettors can exploit.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Aaron Gordon's 59.1% home over rate and +0.18 average differential create legitimate value against the 0.5 steals line. His three-game over streak aligns with season-long home court advantages in Denver's defensive system. Target this prop against uptempo opponents or teams with turnover-prone guards. Primary risk involves potential line adjustments if books recognize the 12.8% over ROI, making early week action preferable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Steals prop record home games?
Aaron Gordon has gone over 0.5 steals in 13 of 22 home games (59.1% rate) with a 13-9-0 over/under record. He averages 0.68 steals at home, creating a +0.18 differential above the standard line with a profitable 12.8% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Steals home games?
Bet the over on Aaron Gordon's steals at home games. His 59.1% over rate and +0.18 average differential above the 0.5 line create consistent value. The 12.8% ROI on overs validates this edge, especially during his current three-game over streak.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Steals home games?
Aaron Gordon averages 0.68 steals in home games compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a +0.18 differential. This 36% edge above the betting threshold reflects his enhanced defensive positioning and steal opportunities at Ball Arena in Denver's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon's steals props early in the week before potential line adjustments, especially against uptempo opponents or turnover-prone guards. His home court advantage is most pronounced when Denver faces teams that generate more possessions and deflection opportunities.