Aaron Gordon's points production on one day rest shows a perfectly balanced 19-19 over/under record across 38 games, with his 13.39 average falling 0.5 points below typical lines. The neutral trend combined with negative ROI on both sides suggests market efficiency. This is a clear pass situation.
Expert Analysis
Gordon's points prop on one day rest presents a textbook example of market efficiency, with his 50.0% over rate indicating no exploitable edge exists. The 13.39 scoring average consistently trails the 13.89 line by half a point, yet this gap hasn't translated into profitable under betting due to the -4.5% ROI on both sides. This suggests books have accurately priced the slight downtick in Gordon's production following single-day rest periods. The veteran forward's role as Denver's fourth scoring option behind Jokic, Murray, and Porter Jr. creates natural scoring variance that one day of rest doesn't meaningfully impact. His defensive responsibilities and energy on the boards remain consistent regardless of rest, but his offensive touches fluctuate based on game flow rather than physical condition. The absence of meaningful splits data reinforces that external factors like opponent strength, pace, and blowout potential matter more than Gordon's rest advantage. With equal longest streaks of four overs and three unders, the pattern shows no directional bias worth exploiting. The current one-game under streak holds no predictive value given the sample's randomness.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. Aaron Gordon's points prop on one day rest offers zero edge, with a perfectly balanced 19-19 record and negative ROI regardless of side. The slight under-performance versus his line reflects accurate market pricing rather than a betting opportunity. Focus your bankroll on props with clearer directional bias and positive expected value rather than this coin-flip scenario.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 14.5 | 23.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 11.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 15.5 | 17.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 14.5 | 12.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Aaron Gordon is 19-19 on points overs with one day rest, hitting exactly 50.0% across 38 games from October 2023 through April 2024. His 13.39 scoring average trails typical 13.89 lines by 0.5 points consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Points 1 day rest?
Neither over nor under offers value on Gordon's points with one day rest. The perfect 50-50 split and negative ROI on both sides make this a clear pass. Look for props with directional bias instead.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Points 1 day rest?
Gordon averages 13.39 points on one day rest compared to typical lines around 13.89, creating a 0.5-point gap. However, this slight under-performance hasn't translated to profitable under betting due to accurate market pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid Gordon's points props on one day rest entirely due to the neutral trend. Target his props in back-to-back situations, against pace-up opponents, or when Denver faces injury-depleted frontcourts where his role expands.