Aaron Gordon's points props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games with a -1.2 point differential from the line. The under trend shows strong +14.6% ROI while overs have been brutal at -23.6%, creating a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's scoring decline represents a fundamental shift in Denver's offensive hierarchy rather than temporary variance. Averaging 12.7 points against a 13.9 line reveals consistent underperformance that stems from his evolving role as the Nuggets' fourth option behind Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates books haven't fully adjusted to Gordon's reduced scoring responsibility, particularly as Denver has prioritized his defensive versatility and rebounding over offensive production. This isn't a shooting slump—it's role compression. Gordon's field goal attempts have decreased as the Nuggets have become more efficient through Jokic's playmaking, leaving Gordon to capitalize on fewer but higher-percentage looks. The consistency of this trend across 10 games suggests structural change rather than random fluctuation. Denver's improved pace and ball movement paradoxically reduces Gordon's individual scoring opportunities as possessions become more distributed. The two-game under streak aligns with this broader pattern, and without significant injury or rotation changes to Denver's core, Gordon's scoring ceiling remains artificially capped by his team context.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Aaron Gordon's reduced offensive role within Denver's hierarchy creates a sustainable edge for under bettors, evidenced by the strong +14.6% ROI and consistent 1.2-point shortfall. Target games where the line sits above 13.5, as books appear slow to adjust to his fourth-option status. Main risk is garbage-time scoring in blowouts or if Denver's top three scorers face foul trouble.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 5.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 14.5 | 23.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 13.5 | 14.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 11.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Points prop record last 10 games?
Aaron Gordon has gone 4-6-0 on points overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of his over bets. He's averaging 12.7 points against a 13.9 average line, consistently falling 1.2 points short of expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Aaron Gordon's points props. The numbers strongly favor under bettors with +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% for overs. His reduced role as Denver's fourth option creates consistent value on the under side.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Points last 10 games?
Aaron Gordon is averaging 12.7 points over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 13.9 points. This -1.2 differential shows he's consistently falling short of sportsbook expectations by over a full point per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon under bets when his line is set above 13.5 points, particularly in games where Denver's top three scorers are healthy. Avoid unders in potential blowouts where garbage-time scoring could inflate his numbers.