Aaron Gordon has quietly become one of the most reliable home overs in the NBA, hitting at a 62.1% clip (18-11-0) while averaging 14.31 points against a 13.88 line. This 18.5% ROI represents a significant edge that the market continues to undervalue.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Gordon's home court advantage that extends beyond simple comfort level. His 14.31 points per game at Ball Arena represents a meaningful 0.43-point edge over his typical line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his enhanced role in Denver's system. The 62.1% over rate across 29 games provides substantial sample size credibility, while the 18.5% ROI demonstrates this isn't just variance—it's a systematic mispricing. Gordon benefits from Denver's uptempo pace at home, where crowd energy translates to more transition opportunities and second-chance points. His versatility as both a rim-runner and spot-up shooter makes him particularly effective in the Nuggets' free-flowing home offense. The consistency is remarkable: his longest under streak is just two games, while he's strung together five consecutive overs. This suggests the trend has staying power rather than being driven by a few outlier performances. The lack of dramatic line movement despite this track record indicates the market remains slow to adjust, creating continued value. However, regression risk exists if his shooting variance normalizes or if Nikola Jokic's usage patterns shift significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gordon's home scoring props offer legitimate value based on his 62.1% over rate and consistent 0.43-point edge above his lines. The trend appears sustainable given Denver's pace advantages and his expanded role. Primary risk is natural regression, but the market's slow adjustment suggests continued profitability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 5.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 14.5 | 23.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 13.5 | 10.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 13.5 | 7.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 14.5 | 17.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 14.5 | 17.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 14.5 | 12.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 18.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Points prop record home games?
Aaron Gordon has gone over his points prop in 18 of 29 home games (62.1%) with an 18-11-0 record. He averages 14.31 points at home, consistently outperforming his typical 13.88 line by 0.43 points per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Points home games?
Lean over on Gordon's home points props. His 62.1% over rate and 18.5% ROI represent genuine value, though regression risk exists. The market hasn't fully adjusted to his enhanced home performance in Denver's system.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Points home games?
Aaron Gordon averages 14.31 points in home games compared to his typical line of 13.88. This 0.43-point differential has been remarkably consistent, contributing to his 62.1% over rate and strong ROI for bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gordon's points props in home games where Denver's pace advantage is maximized. His overs hit at 62.1% at Ball Arena, particularly when the Nuggets' transition game is clicking and crowd energy elevates the tempo.