Aaron Gordon's blocks prop at home presents one of the season's most lopsided trends, hitting over just 13.6% of the time across 22 games. With an average of 0.14 blocks versus a 0.5 line, Gordon consistently falls short by a massive -0.4 differential. This is a clear UNDER lean with strong historical backing.
Expert Analysis
Gordon's home blocks trend reveals a fundamental mismatch between his defensive role and market expectations. As Denver's primary power forward, Gordon operates more as a help defender and rebounder rather than a rim protector, averaging just 0.14 blocks per home game against a 0.5 line that assumes he'll record one block every other game. His positioning in Denver's defensive scheme prioritizes switching and perimeter coverage over shot-blocking, particularly at Ball Arena where the Nuggets often face pace-conscious opponents who attack in transition rather than challenging Gordon at the rim. The 10-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting this isn't variance but a systematic issue with the line-setting. Denver's home defensive efficiency relies more on Nikola Jokic's rim protection and Gordon's versatility defending multiple positions. The -74% ROI on overs indicates the market has been slow to adjust to Gordon's actual defensive usage patterns at home, where he averages fewer contested shots near the basket compared to his road splits. This trend shows no signs of regression given Gordon's defined role and Denver's defensive philosophy remaining constant throughout the sample period.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Gordon's 13.6% over rate at home reflects his actual defensive role rather than market inefficiency, making this a sustainable trend worth targeting. The ideal conditions involve Denver playing at home against teams that don't heavily attack the paint or when Gordon is likely to play more perimeter-oriented minutes. Main risk is a potential line adjustment down to 0.5 or Denver facing an unusually post-heavy opponent that forces Gordon into more rim-protection situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Blocks Prop Lines
Compare Aaron Gordon props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Blocks prop record home games?
Gordon's blocks prop record at home games is 3-19-0 over/under, hitting the over just 13.6% of the time across 22 games from December 2023 to April 2024, making it one of the season's most lopsided trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Blocks home games?
Bet UNDER on Gordon's blocks at home games. His 13.6% over rate and -0.4 average differential from the 0.5 line creates a clear edge, supported by his defensive role prioritizing switching over rim protection.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Blocks home games?
Gordon averages 0.14 blocks per home game, falling significantly short of the typical 0.5 line by 0.4 blocks. This massive differential explains his 13.6% over rate and represents exceptional value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Best time to bet Gordon blocks unders is home games against pace-oriented teams that don't attack the paint heavily. Avoid when Denver faces post-heavy opponents or when Gordon might play more center minutes due to injuries.