Aaron Gordon's blocks prop shows a clear under bias in away games, hitting just 47.6% overs across 21 games with a -9.1% ROI on the over side. His 0.71 average against the standard 0.5 line creates a modest edge, but the under trend has proven more reliable on the road.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's away blocks performance reveals a fascinating disconnect between his actual production and betting market expectations. While averaging 0.71 blocks per away game against the typical 0.5 line suggests consistent value on overs, the 47.6% hit rate tells a different story about variance and game flow dynamics. The forward's defensive positioning changes significantly on the road, where Denver's schemes often require him to focus more on perimeter switching and help defense rather than rim protection. Away environments also correlate with faster-paced games where Gordon's energy gets allocated more toward offensive rebounding and transition opportunities. The -9.1% ROI on overs indicates the market may be overvaluing his shot-blocking upside in hostile environments, while the 0.0% ROI on unders suggests fair pricing on that side. His longest under streak of five games demonstrates the sustainability of quiet blocking performances, while the four-game over streak shows his ceiling remains accessible but less predictable away from home.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 52.4% under rate combined with break-even ROI on that side indicates proper market calibration favoring the under. Gordon's road role emphasizes versatility over rim protection, making the 0.5 line a reasonable fade spot despite his 0.71 average. Target games where pace projects slower or Denver faces teams that attack the rim less frequently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Blocks prop record away games?
Aaron Gordon has gone 10-11-0 on his blocks over/under in away games, hitting just 47.6% overs with a -9.1% ROI. The under side shows 52.4% hits with break-even returns, indicating better market efficiency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Blocks away games?
Lean under on Aaron Gordon's blocks in away games. The 52.4% under rate with 0.0% ROI shows proper pricing, while his road defensive role emphasizes switching over rim protection, making 0.5 blocks a reasonable fade.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Blocks away games?
Aaron Gordon averages 0.71 blocks in away games compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a +0.2 differential. However, the 47.6% over rate shows this average doesn't translate to consistent betting value on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gordon's blocks unders in slower-paced away games where opponents attack the rim less frequently. His road role emphasizes perimeter defense over shot-blocking, making the under more reliable than his 0.71 average suggests.