Aaron Gordon's assists prop on one day rest presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 42.1% overs with a brutal -19.6% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 3.39 assists versus the typical 3.0 line, the inconsistency makes unders the profitable play.
Expert Analysis
Aaron Gordon's assist production on one day rest reveals a fascinating disconnect between average performance and betting value. While Gordon averages 3.39 assists against the standard 3.0 line, suggesting over value, the reality is far more complex. The 16-22 over-under record tells the real story - Gordon fails to exceed expectations 57.9% of the time, creating consistent under value. This pattern stems from Gordon's role as Denver's fourth option in ball distribution behind Jokic, Murray, and often Porter Jr. On one day rest, the Nuggets typically maintain their structured offensive flow, limiting Gordon's playmaking opportunities to drive-and-kick situations and transition moments. The -19.6% ROI for overs indicates the market consistently overvalues Gordon's assist ceiling, likely influenced by his occasional explosive passing games that skew the average upward. His current two-game over streak is misleading given his historical eight-game under streak earlier this season. The 38-game sample provides robust data showing Gordon's assist production lacks the consistency needed for profitable over betting, despite the appealing average differential.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.9% under rate combined with positive under ROI (+10.5%) creates a sustainable edge despite Gordon's higher average. The market appears to overvalue Gordon's assist ceiling, particularly on one day rest when Denver's offense runs through established hierarchies. Target this when the line sits at 3.0 or higher, but avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate assists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Aaron Gordon props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Assists prop record 1 day rest?
Aaron Gordon's assists prop record on one day rest is 16-22, hitting overs just 42.1% of the time across 38 games. This translates to unders cashing 57.9% of the time, creating a clear statistical edge for under bettors over a significant sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Assists 1 day rest?
Bet under on Aaron Gordon's assists prop with one day rest. The 57.9% under rate and positive +10.5% ROI for under bettors creates a sustainable edge, despite Gordon averaging 3.39 assists against typical 3.0 lines.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Assists 1 day rest?
Aaron Gordon averages 3.39 assists on one day rest, which is 0.4 assists above the standard 3.0 line. However, this average is misleading as he fails to hit overs 57.9% of the time, indicating volatile performance with occasional spike games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Aaron Gordon assists unders on one day rest when the line is 3.0 or higher, especially in competitive games where Denver runs structured offense. Avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time assists could inflate his numbers unexpectedly.