Aaron Gordon has quietly become an elite assists play, hitting the over at a 70% clip across his last 10 games with a massive +1.8 differential versus the typical line. The 33.6% ROI tells the story of a market that hasn't adjusted to his expanded playmaking role. This is a strong lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a fundamental shift in Aaron Gordon's role within Denver's offensive ecosystem that the betting market hasn't fully recognized. His 5.2 assists per game over this 10-game stretch represents a 53% increase over his typical line of 3.4, suggesting either expanded responsibilities or improved court vision that's sustainable. The 7-3-0 over record isn't just lucky variance—it reflects consistent execution in a system that increasingly relies on his versatility. Gordon's assist production has become more reliable as Denver's offense has evolved, particularly with his ability to initiate from the elbow and facilitate in transition. The current three-game over streak indicates momentum rather than regression risk, especially considering his lowest assist total in this sample likely still approached the line. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the market's slow adjustment—a 33.6% ROI suggests books are undervaluing his current usage patterns. The lack of significant under stretches (longest is just one game) demonstrates consistency that's rare in assist props. However, the primary risk lies in game script dependency, as blowouts could limit his floor time and reduce playmaking opportunities in crucial fourth quarters.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gordon's expanded playmaking role has created a sustainable edge that the market hasn't fully corrected. The 70% hit rate combined with a +1.8 average differential provides strong mathematical support. Target games where Denver projects to play competitive basketball for four quarters, as his assist production correlates strongly with meaningful minutes. The main risk is regression to his historical mean, but the consistency suggests this represents a genuine role evolution rather than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Aaron Gordon's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Aaron Gordon has gone over his assists prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate), averaging 5.2 assists compared to his typical line of 3.4. He's currently on a three-game over streak with strong consistency throughout this sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Aaron Gordon Assists last 10 games?
Lean over on Gordon's assists props. The 70% hit rate and +1.8 differential show clear value, though target competitive games where he'll play meaningful fourth-quarter minutes. The market hasn't adjusted to his expanded playmaking role within Denver's system.
What's Aaron Gordon's average Assists last 10 games?
Gordon is averaging 5.2 assists over his last 10 games, which is 1.8 assists above his typical line of 3.4. This 53% increase over expectation represents significant value that the betting market hasn't fully recognized or adjusted for.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gordon assists overs in competitive games where Denver projects to play full rotations. Avoid potential blowouts that could limit his fourth-quarter minutes, as his assist production relies heavily on meaningful game situations and extended floor time.