The data suggests caution when backing the Phoenix Suns in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Phoenix Suns are just 40-63-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -25.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +25.9%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record40-63-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size103 games
ROI-25.9%
Units Won-26.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-8-00.0%-78.8%
20158-8-00.0%-4.5%
20161-5-00.0%-68.2%
20173-1-00.0%+43.2%
20184-6-00.0%-23.6%
20196-5-00.0%+4.1%
20203-5-00.0%-28.4%
20211-6-00.0%-72.7%
20222-5-00.0%-45.5%
20235-6-00.0%-13.2%
20246-8-00.0%-18.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Suns' struggles as heavy favorites stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the killer instinct needed to dominate inferior opponents. Phoenix teams have often played down to competition, particularly during their rebuilding years when young cores lacked the veteran leadership to maintain focus against weaker teams. The franchise's inconsistent coaching changes and roster turnover created an environment where players couldn't develop the mental toughness required to execute blowout victories. Phoenix's fast-paced offensive style, while entertaining, often keeps games closer than the talent gap suggests. Their tendency to live and die by the three-pointer creates natural variance that prevents them from steadily pulling away from overmatched opponents. When shots aren't falling, even inferior teams can hang around and cover large spreads through garbage time scoring. The psychological burden of being heavily favored has consistently weighed on Suns players, who often approach these games with complacency rather than the focused aggression needed to justify massive point spreads. Their defensive inconsistency compounds this issue, as they frequently allow backdoor covers through lapses in effort. This trend matters most when Phoenix faces bottom-tier Eastern Conference teams on the road, where the combination of travel fatigue and overconfidence creates perfect conditions for disappointing performances.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Phoenix Suns's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?

The Phoenix Suns have a 40-63-0 ATS record as large favorites (-7.5+) from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 38.8% of games. This translates to a 0.0% win rate for bettors backing the Suns in these situations.

Is betting on the Phoenix Suns as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?

No, betting on the Phoenix Suns as large favorites has been unprofitable with a -25.9% ROI over the past decade. Bettors would have lost approximately 26 cents for every dollar wagered on the Suns when they were favored by 7.5+ points.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the typical league average, where large favorites generally cover around 50% of the time. The Suns' 38.8% cover rate as big favorites represents a substantial underperformance that has created consistent value for bettors taking their opponents.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.