Oklahoma City Thunder vs Non-Conference Opponent Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs non-conference opponent, the Oklahoma City Thunder are just 113-118-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -6.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +6.6%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 9-8-0 | 0.0% | +1.1% |
| 2015 | 15-8-0 | 0.0% | +24.5% |
| 2016 | 10-10-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2017 | 14-8-0 | 0.0% | +21.5% |
| 2018 | 6-14-0 | 0.0% | -42.7% |
| 2019 | 11-10-0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 13-11-0 | 0.0% | +3.4% |
| 2021 | 11-11-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 9-15-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2023 | 13-11-0 | 0.0% | +3.4% |
| 2024 | 2-12-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Thunder's struggles against non-conference opponents stem from several interconnected factors that create a perfect storm for disappointing ATS performances. Oklahoma City has historically been a team built around familiarity and rhythm, thriving when they can establish consistent game plans against division rivals they face multiple times per season. Against unfamiliar Eastern Conference opponents, the Thunder often struggle with tempo adjustments and defensive schemes they haven't extensively prepared for. The psychological element cannot be overlooked either. Non-conference games frequently carry less emotional weight for players, particularly during the regular season grind. The Thunder's young core tends to approach these matchups with less intensity than crucial Western Conference battles that directly impact playoff positioning. This mental letdown becomes magnified when oddsmakers fail to account for Oklahoma City's historical indifference in these spots. The recent precipitous decline suggests this pattern has become even more pronounced as the team has undergone roster transitions. New players haven't yet internalized the importance of maintaining focus across all opponent types, creating exploitable betting situations. Savvy bettors should target fading Oklahoma City when they're favored against Eastern Conference teams, particularly in home games where the spread might inflate due to perceived court advantage. This trend matters most during January and February when schedule fatigue peaks and non-conference games feel most routine.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Oklahoma City Thunder's ATS record as vs non-conference opponent?
The Oklahoma City Thunder has gone 113-118-0 against the spread when facing non-conference opponents from 2014-2024. This represents a 48.9% ATS win rate over 231 total games.
Is betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder as vs non-conference opponent profitable?
No, betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder against non-conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -6.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Thunder in these matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Thunder's 48.9% ATS win rate against non-conference opponents falls below the typical 50% break-even point expected in sports betting. This underperformance relative to the spread suggests the betting market may overvalue Oklahoma City in these specific matchups.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.