The data suggests caution when backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Oklahoma City Thunder are just 6-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -28.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +28.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record6-10-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size16 games
ROI-28.4%
Units Won-4.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20160-1-00.0%-100.0%
20172-2-00.0%-4.5%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20201-2-00.0%-36.4%
20221-0-00.0%+90.9%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Thunder's struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their historically young roster construction and energy-dependent playing style. Oklahoma City has consistently fielded teams built around athleticism and pace, which becomes a liability when legs are heavy from back-to-back games. Unlike veteran-laden squads that can rely on experience and half-court execution, the Thunder's identity revolves around transition offense and defensive intensity - two elements that deteriorate rapidly without proper recovery time. The psychological aspect compounds this physical disadvantage. Young players often underestimate the cumulative fatigue of consecutive games, leading to overconfidence when oddsmakers install them as home favorites. This creates a dangerous combination where the Thunder believes they can overcome tired legs through sheer will, while bettors get seduced by the perceived advantage of playing at home. The franchise's developmental approach also plays a role, as coaches prioritize player growth and extended minutes for prospects over strategic rest management. This philosophy, while beneficial long-term, creates exploitable spots for sharp bettors. Target this trend most aggressively when the Thunder face disciplined road teams with veteran leadership, particularly during stretches of the season when developmental priorities outweigh immediate winning concerns.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Oklahoma City Thunder's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The Oklahoma City Thunder has a 6-10-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 37.5% ATS win rate over 16 games.

Is betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Thunder as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable. The trend shows a -28.4% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate, indicating consistent losses for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below league average, as most home favorites typically cover around 48-52% ATS. The Thunder's 37.5% ATS rate and negative ROI make this a notable fade opportunity.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.