The data suggests caution when backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Oklahoma City Thunder are just 32-76-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -43.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +43.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record32-76-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size108 games
ROI-43.4%
Units Won-46.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-4-00.0%-36.4%
20155-7-00.0%-20.4%
20163-7-00.0%-42.7%
20173-6-00.0%-36.4%
20184-10-00.0%-45.5%
20193-8-00.0%-47.9%
20203-8-00.0%-47.9%
20211-8-00.0%-78.8%
20223-7-00.0%-42.7%
20233-5-00.0%-28.4%
20242-6-00.0%-52.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Thunder's struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between their young, developing roster and the expectations that come with being favored away from home. Oklahoma City has operated as a rebuilding franchise for most of this period, relying heavily on inexperienced players who lack the mental fortitude to handle the pressure of being expected to win in hostile environments. Young teams typically perform better as underdogs where they can play loose and aggressive, rather than as favorites where they must control games and execute in crucial moments. The franchise's developmental approach means they often prioritize player growth over immediate results, leading to inconsistent effort levels and questionable late-game decision-making when facing teams they're supposed to beat. Road favorites must typically overcome both venue disadvantage and opponent desperation, requiring veteran leadership and clutch execution that Oklahoma City's youth movement has consistently lacked. The psychological burden of being favored amplifies the Thunder's natural road struggles, as opposing crowds become more energized when facing a "better" team, while Oklahoma City's players often appear overwhelmed by expectations they're not yet equipped to handle. This trend carries the most weight when the Thunder are small road favorites against teams with veteran leadership or strong home court advantages.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Oklahoma City Thunder's ATS record as away favorite?

The Oklahoma City Thunder has a 32-76-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 29.6% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Oklahoma City Thunder as away favorites is highly unprofitable with a -43.4% ROI. This means bettors would lose approximately 43 cents for every dollar wagered over this 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Thunder's 29.6% cover rate as away favorites represents a massive negative deviation from expected performance.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.