The data suggests caution when backing the New York Knicks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the New York Knicks are just 22-27-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -14.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +14.3%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record22-27-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size49 games
ROI-14.3%
Units Won-7.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-4-00.0%-36.4%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20161-3-00.0%-52.3%
20171-2-00.0%-36.4%
20184-1-00.0%+52.7%
20193-1-00.0%+43.2%
20203-4-00.0%-18.2%
20212-1-00.0%+27.3%
20220-4-00.0%-100.0%
20232-4-00.0%-36.4%
20243-2-00.0%+14.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Knicks' struggles as home favorites after losses stem from a franchise-wide pattern of inconsistent emotional responses and tactical adjustments. New York has historically been a team that feeds off crowd energy and external validation, but when coming off defeats, they often press too hard to immediately bounce back rather than executing their system. This urgency manifests in rushed offensive possessions and defensive lapses, particularly in the first half when they're trying to establish early momentum for their home crowd. Madison Square Garden's intense atmosphere can actually work against the Knicks in this spot. The pressure to perform creates overthinking, especially among role players who feel the weight of fan expectations. The team's coaching staff has shown a tendency to overcorrect after losses, making tactical changes that disrupt established rotations and chemistry. This is particularly problematic when they're expected to win, as the combination of lineup tinkering and pressing leads to disjointed performances. Smart bettors should target the opposing team's spread in these situations, especially when the Knicks are favored by 6+ points. This trend carries the most weight during nationally televised games at MSG, where the spotlight amplifies both the pressure and the potential for emotional letdowns.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New York Knicks's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The New York Knicks have gone 22-27-0 against the spread as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 44.9% ATS win rate over 49 games.

Is betting on the New York Knicks as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Knicks as home favorites after a loss has not been profitable, with a -14.3% ROI. This trend has resulted in consistent losses for bettors over the 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 44.9% ATS rate is below the typical 50% expectation and likely underperforms the league average for home favorites. The negative ROI indicates this has been a particularly poor betting situation for the Knicks.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.