The data suggests caution when backing the New Orleans Pelicans in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home after 2+ losses, the New Orleans Pelicans are just 107-130-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -13.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +13.8%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record107-130-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size237 games
ROI-13.8%
Units Won-32.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20146-13-00.0%-39.7%
201512-12-00.0%-4.5%
201612-12-00.0%-4.5%
20175-16-00.0%-54.5%
20187-10-00.0%-21.4%
201915-16-00.0%-7.6%
202016-9-00.0%+22.2%
20218-17-00.0%-38.9%
20228-5-00.0%+17.5%
20238-10-00.0%-15.2%
202410-10-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pelicans' struggles as home favorites following multiple road losses stem from a franchise-wide pattern of inconsistent emotional responses to adversity. New Orleans has historically been a team that relies heavily on momentum and crowd energy, but when they return home after consecutive defeats, the weight of expectations often exceeds their ability to execute. The organization's frequent roster turnover and coaching changes since 2014 have created an environment where players lack the institutional memory needed to break negative cycles effectively. This trend becomes particularly pronounced because the Pelicans' home court advantage at the Smoothie King Center has never been as intimidating as other NBA venues. When the team returns home desperate for a win, opposing teams recognize they're facing a squad that's pressing rather than playing with confidence. The betting market often overcompensates for New Orleans' perceived desperation, creating inflated lines that favor road underdogs who can exploit the Pelicans' tendency to force plays early in games. Sharp bettors should target this spot when the Pelicans are laying more than four points at home, especially against teams with solid road records. This trend carries the most weight during the middle portions of the season when playoff positioning becomes critical and the pressure to perform at home intensifies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the New Orleans Pelicans's ATS record as home after 2+ losses?

The New Orleans Pelicans have an ATS record of 107-130-0 when playing at home after suffering 2 or more consecutive losses from 2014-2024. This translates to a 45.1% ATS win rate over 237 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the New Orleans Pelicans as home after 2+ losses profitable?

No, betting on the New Orleans Pelicans at home after 2+ losses is not profitable. The strategy shows a negative ROI of -13.8% over the 10-year period, meaning bettors would lose money consistently following this approach.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the expected 50% break-even rate for ATS betting. The Pelicans' 45.1% ATS win rate in this situation indicates they consistently fail to cover spreads when playing at home following multiple losses, making them a poor betting value in this scenario.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.