Minnesota Timberwolves As Favorite Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Minnesota Timberwolves in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Minnesota Timberwolves are just 94-133-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -20.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +20.9%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4-8-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2015 | 7-11-0 | 0.0% | -25.8% |
| 2016 | 11-17-0 | 0.0% | -25.0% |
| 2017 | 17-15-0 | 0.0% | +1.4% |
| 2018 | 9-17-0 | 0.0% | -33.9% |
| 2019 | 11-11-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 9-12-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2021 | 7-9-0 | 0.0% | -16.5% |
| 2022 | 3-14-0 | 0.0% | -66.3% |
| 2023 | 5-10-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2024 | 11-9-0 | 0.0% | +5.0% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Timberwolves' struggles as favorites stem from a franchise-wide mentality that has historically thrived in underdog situations but crumbled under expectations. Minnesota's young core, led by Anthony Edwards and anchored by Rudy Gobert, often plays with more urgency and focus when facing superior opponents than when they're expected to dominate lesser teams. This psychological dynamic creates a dangerous trap for bettors, as the Wolves frequently overlook weaker opponents while simultaneously facing inflated lines due to their talent level. Minnesota's defensive identity, built around Gobert's rim protection, can become passive against teams they perceive as non-threatening. Their offensive execution also tends to become stagnant when not pushed by elite competition, with Edwards sometimes forcing difficult shots rather than running proper sets against overmatched opponents. The recent improvement suggests growing maturity, but the underlying tendency remains problematic. The key insight for bettors is recognizing when Minnesota faces teams with nothing to lose – these scenarios often produce the worst performances relative to expectations. This trend matters most when the Timberwolves are laying significant points against lottery-bound teams or in back-to-back situations where complacency becomes amplified.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Minnesota Timberwolves's ATS record as as favorite?
The Minnesota Timberwolves have an ATS record of 94-133-0 when favored from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 41.4% of games. This represents a significant struggle to meet betting expectations when installed as favorites.
Is betting on the Minnesota Timberwolves as as favorite profitable?
No, betting on the Minnesota Timberwolves as favorites has been unprofitable with a -20.9% ROI over the past decade. A $100 bet on every game would have resulted in approximately $21 in losses per game.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well below the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS when favored. The Timberwolves' 41.4% cover rate and negative ROI indicate they have consistently been overvalued by oddsmakers during this period.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.