Milwaukee Bucks Small Favorite (-1 to -3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the Milwaukee Bucks are just 19-25-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -17.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +17.6%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2015 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2018 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2020 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2021 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2022 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2023 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2024 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Bucks' struggles as small favorites stem from their inherently volatile playing style and roster construction. Milwaukee has consistently built teams around explosive offensive talent that can overwhelm opponents on any given night, but this same approach creates inconsistency when they're expected to win close games. Their reliance on three-point shooting and transition offense means they're susceptible to cold stretches that can derail what should be comfortable victories. Psychologically, the Bucks have historically played down to competition when favored by narrow margins. This franchise has often carried the burden of elevated expectations without the championship pedigree to match, leading to complacent performances against teams they're supposed to beat. The small favorite range particularly exposes this tendency because it represents games where Milwaukee faces respectable opponents who won't simply roll over. The team's defensive inconsistencies compound this issue. While capable of elite defensive stretches, the Bucks have shown a pattern of relaxing their intensity when they assume victory is within reach, allowing underdogs to hang around and cover spreads. Smart bettors should be particularly cautious backing Milwaukee as small road favorites, where their inconsistent effort combines with typical road challenges. This trend becomes most critical during regular season stretches when playoff positioning seems secure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?
The Milwaukee Bucks have a 19-25-0 ATS record as small favorites (-1 to -3) from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 43.2% of games. This represents a significant struggle against the spread in close games where they're favored by a small margin.
Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?
No, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as small favorites (-1 to -3) is not profitable, with a -17.6% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing Milwaukee in these situations.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well below the typical 50% ATS expectation for any team situation. The Bucks' 43.2% cover rate as small favorites indicates they consistently fail to win by the expected margin in close games.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.