Milwaukee Bucks Home Underdog Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the Milwaukee Bucks hold a record of 60-44-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +10.1% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $11 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2015 | 7-2-0 | 0.0% | +48.5% |
| 2016 | 6-3-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2017 | 5-4-0 | 0.0% | +6.1% |
| 2018 | 6-3-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2019 | 4-6-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2020 | 6-3-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2021 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
| 2022 | 3-7-0 | 0.0% | -42.7% |
| 2023 | 7-3-0 | 0.0% | +33.6% |
| 2024 | 10-3-0 | 0.0% | +46.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Bucks' success as home underdogs stems from their ability to elevate their play when disrespected by oddsmakers at Fiserv Forum. Milwaukee thrives on the energy that comes from being counted out, particularly when their passionate fanbase rallies behind an undervalued team. This dynamic creates a perfect storm where the Bucks play with heightened intensity while opponents often arrive overconfident based on favorable betting lines. Milwaukee's core strength lies in their defensive versatility and transition offense, which becomes even more potent when they're playing with house money as underdogs. The team's length and athleticism allow them to disrupt opposing offenses while their crowd feeds off every defensive stop. When bookmakers underestimate Milwaukee at home, they're often reacting to recent road struggles or injury concerns that don't fully account for the significant home court advantage the Bucks enjoy. The psychological edge of being undervalued at home cannot be understated for a franchise that has experienced both championship glory and playoff disappointments. This creates a chip-on-the-shoulder mentality that translates to maximum effort. Look for this trend to be most valuable when Milwaukee is catching points at home against elite opponents or when returning from a poor road trip, as the combination of motivation and venue creates optimal betting conditions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as home underdog?
The Milwaukee Bucks have a 60-44-0 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This translates to a 57.7% ATS win rate over 104 games.
Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as home underdog profitable?
Yes, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as home underdogs has been profitable with a 10.1% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite covering the spread at a strong 57.7% rate, their 0.0% straight-up win rate indicates they rarely won these games outright.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Bucks' 57.7% ATS win rate as home underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50%. Their 10.1% ROI demonstrates consistent value for bettors in this specific situation.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.