The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home games, the Milwaukee Bucks are just 115-117-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.4%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record115-117-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size232 games
ROI-5.4%
Units Won-12.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-11-00.0%-19.6%
20159-11-00.0%-14.1%
201611-10-00.0%0.0%
20176-6-00.0%-4.5%
201811-9-00.0%+5.0%
201911-13-00.0%-12.5%
202010-10-00.0%-4.5%
202110-15-00.0%-23.6%
20228-15-00.0%-33.6%
202312-9-00.0%+9.1%
202419-8-00.0%+34.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bucks' home spread performance reflects the classic challenge of a high-profile franchise that consistently draws inflated lines at Fiserv Forum. Milwaukee's star power with Giannis Antetokounmpo creates public betting pressure that pushes home spreads beyond their true value, particularly in marquee matchups. The team's dominant regular season success over recent years has conditioned oddsmakers to build in premium pricing for their home games, making it difficult to consistently cover as favorites. Milwaukee's home court advantage operates differently than traditional NBA venues. While Fiserv Forum provides energy, the Bucks often rely more on their individual talent than crowd momentum, leading to inconsistent intensity levels against weaker opponents. Their recent uptick in form suggests better focus, but historically they've struggled with the mental approach needed to blow out inferior teams at home when laying significant points. The key insight for bettors is recognizing when Milwaukee faces legitimate competition versus perceived pushovers. The Bucks tend to cover more reliably at home when facing playoff-caliber opponents who demand their full attention, while struggling against teams they're expected to dominate. This trend matters most during the regular season when motivation can wane, particularly in games where Milwaukee is favored by double digits against non-contending teams.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as home games?

The Milwaukee Bucks have gone 115-117-0 against the spread in home games from 2014-2024. This represents a slightly below-average ATS performance with a 49.6% cover rate.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as home games profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks at home has not been profitable, showing a -5.4% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. This negative return indicates consistent underperformance against betting market expectations.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bucks' 49.6% home ATS win rate is slightly below the theoretical 50% break-even point and likely below league average. The -5.4% ROI suggests they've been consistently overvalued by oddsmakers in home games.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.