The data suggests caution when backing the Milwaukee Bucks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a loss, the Milwaukee Bucks are just 105-115-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.9%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record105-115-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size221 games
ROI-8.9%
Units Won-19.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-13-00.0%-12.5%
201511-7-00.0%+16.7%
20168-11-00.0%-19.6%
20177-9-00.0%-16.5%
20188-10-10.0%-15.2%
201910-9-00.0%+0.5%
202011-12-00.0%-8.7%
20218-17-00.0%-38.9%
202210-9-00.0%+0.5%
20238-8-00.0%-4.5%
202413-10-00.0%+7.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bucks' struggles after losses stem from their championship-caliber roster creating inflated public expectations and corresponding line movement. When Milwaukee loses, casual bettors often view it as an aberration and heavily back them in the following game, pushing spreads beyond their true value. This is particularly pronounced given Giannis Antetokounmpo's superstar status and the team's recent championship pedigree. Milwaukee's offensive system, heavily reliant on Giannis driving to the rim and creating for others, can become predictable when teams have fresh film from their previous loss. Opponents often make effective adjustments, implementing wall defenses or switching schemes that the Bucks haven't had adequate time to counter. The team's three-point variance also plays a role – when their outside shooting regresses to the mean after a poor performance, they often fail to cover inflated numbers. The psychological factor cannot be ignored either. Championship teams sometimes exhibit overconfidence after losses, assuming their talent alone will correct course without matching their opponent's intensity or preparation level. This trend carries the most weight when the Bucks are road favorites after home losses, particularly against teams fighting for playoff positioning who can match their physicality and execution.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Milwaukee Bucks's ATS record as after a loss?

The Milwaukee Bucks have gone 105-115-1 against the spread (ATS) when playing after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.7% ATS win rate over 221 total games in this situation.

Is betting on the Milwaukee Bucks as after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Milwaukee Bucks after a loss has not been profitable, showing a -8.9% ROI over the past decade. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Bucks in bounce-back spots.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bucks' 47.7% ATS win rate after losses is below the typical 50% expectation and likely underperforms the league average. Their negative ROI suggests they've been overvalued by oddsmakers in bounce-back situations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.