Miami Heat Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Heat's struggles as large favorites stem from their organizational culture that thrives on adversity rather than dominance. Miami has built its identity around being the underdog, fighting through tough playoff battles, and embracing the "Heat Culture" mentality that performs best when backs are against the wall. When installed as heavy favorites, this psychological edge dissipates, often leading to flat performances against teams they're expected to handle easily. Pat Riley's teams historically play to the level of their competition, a double-edged sword that serves them well in marquee matchups but creates vulnerability against lesser opponents. The Heat's defensive-minded approach and grind-it-out style doesn't naturally lend itself to blowout victories, even when talent suggests they should cruise. Their tendency to experiment with lineups and rest key players during "easy" games further compounds the issue. Miami's veteran leadership often treats large spreads as regular season noise, focusing more on playoff positioning and health management than covering numbers. The team's inconsistent offensive execution becomes magnified when they can't rely on defensive intensity to carry them against motivated underdogs. This trend matters most during stretches when Miami faces rebuilding teams or plays the second night of back-to-backs as heavy chalk.