The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Lakers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7), the Los Angeles Lakers are just 33-48-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -22.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +22.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record33-48-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size82 games
ROI-22.2%
Units Won-18.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20146-11-00.0%-32.6%
20151-3-00.0%-52.3%
20162-2-00.0%-4.5%
20172-4-00.0%-36.4%
20184-2-00.0%+27.3%
20195-3-00.0%+19.3%
20204-3-00.0%+9.1%
20212-4-00.0%-36.4%
20221-3-10.0%-52.3%
20233-7-00.0%-42.7%
20243-6-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Lakers' struggles as medium favorites stem from their historically inconsistent approach to games they're expected to control. When favored by this margin, the franchise often faces opponents desperate to make a statement against one of the NBA's most recognizable brands, creating a perfect storm of letdown spots and elevated opponent motivation. Los Angeles has consistently shown a tendency to play down to competition when the spread suggests they should dominate. The psychological burden of being the Lakers means every opponent brings their best effort, while the team itself can fall into the trap of assuming talent alone will suffice. This dynamic becomes particularly pronounced in the medium favorite range, where the Lakers aren't facing elite competition but still carry significant public betting action that inflates their lines. The franchise's star-driven culture often creates situational handicapping challenges. When marquee players rest or play through minor injuries in seemingly "easy" spots, the gap between perception and reality widens dramatically. Role players stepping up against the Lakers' brand recognition frequently outperform expectations. This trend carries the most weight during West Coast road trips and back-to-back situations, where the Lakers' championship pedigree meets the harsh reality of NBA scheduling and opponent desperation.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Los Angeles Lakers's ATS record as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7)?

The Los Angeles Lakers have a 33-48-1 ATS record as medium favorites (-3.5 to -7) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 40.2% ATS win rate over 82 games in this betting situation.

Is betting on the Los Angeles Lakers as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7) profitable?

No, betting on the Lakers as medium favorites has not been profitable, showing a -22.2% ROI. This means bettors would have lost approximately $22 for every $100 wagered on the Lakers in this spot over the 10-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the expected 52.4% ATS win rate needed to break even in sports betting. The Lakers' 40.2% success rate as medium favorites represents poor value compared to typical betting expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.