Houston Rockets Small Favorite (-1 to -3) Betting Trend

The Rockets' struggles as small favorites stem from their historically volatile offensive identity and inconsistent defensive effort. Houston's high-variance style, built around three-point shooting and isolation plays, creates unpredictable performances that make them particularly vulnerable when oddsmakers expect controlled victories. When favored by just a few points, the market often overvalues their offensive ceiling while underestimating how quickly their shooting can go cold. Small favorite spots expose Houston's tendency toward complacency against perceived inferior opponents. The Rockets have repeatedly shown they struggle to maintain focus when not facing elite competition, leading to sluggish starts and allowing underdogs to hang around longer than the spread suggests they should. Their defensive inconsistencies become magnified in these scenarios, as they often fail to generate the stops needed to pull away from motivated underdogs. The psychological element cannot be ignored – Houston's players seem to perform better when facing adversity or playing with house money as underdogs. As small favorites, they lack that edge while carrying the pressure of expectations. This trend matters most when Houston faces teams with strong defensive schemes or when playing the second night of back-to-backs, where their energy and focus typically wane.