The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Rockets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as three or more days rest, the Houston Rockets are just 118-142-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -13.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +13.4%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record118-142-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size260 games
ROI-13.4%
Units Won-34.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20149-8-00.0%+1.1%
201511-12-00.0%-8.7%
201613-13-00.0%-4.5%
201710-14-00.0%-20.4%
201812-17-00.0%-21.0%
201910-9-00.0%+0.5%
202010-12-00.0%-13.2%
20219-18-00.0%-36.4%
202210-14-00.0%-20.4%
202311-15-00.0%-19.2%
202413-10-00.0%+7.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rockets' struggles with extended rest appear rooted in their organizational culture and roster construction over the past decade. Houston has consistently built teams around high-energy, rhythm-dependent players who thrive on momentum and regular competition. When given three or more days off, these squads historically lose their offensive flow and defensive intensity, particularly evident during their transition years following the James Harden era. The franchise's emphasis on analytics-driven basketball requires precise timing and execution that extended breaks tend to disrupt. Houston's offensive schemes rely heavily on quick decision-making and player chemistry, elements that deteriorate when practice time replaces game action. Their recent improvement suggests the current young core may be breaking this pattern, as developing players often benefit more from rest than veteran-heavy rosters that dominated previous seasons. The psychological factor cannot be ignored either. Houston teams have shown a tendency to come out flat after long layoffs, often falling behind early and playing catch-up basketball against the spread. This creates unfavorable game scripts that compound their rest-related issues. This trend carries the most weight early in seasons when Houston faces extended breaks following back-to-back sets or during holiday stretches when their rhythm-dependent style faces its greatest test.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Rockets's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Houston Rockets have gone 118-142-0 against the spread (ATS) when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a 45.4% ATS win rate over 260 total games.

Is betting on the Houston Rockets as three or more days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Rockets with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -13.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent underperformance against betting expectations in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Rockets' 45.4% ATS win rate with extended rest is below the typical league average of around 50% for ATS performance. Their -13.4% ROI suggests they consistently struggle to cover spreads when well-rested compared to other NBA teams.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.